Latinas Could Be the Deciding Factor as Harris Leads Trump in a Tighter-than-Expected Race Among Latinos

Latina voters not only show up in higher numbers than Latino men, but they also play a crucial role in encouraging other community members to vote. A new research brief from Latina Futures revealed how Latinas are increasingly becoming a decisive voting bloc in the 2024 elections.

According to the research, Latinas have influenced U.S. election outcomes with growing significance. Since 1980, Latinas and non-Hispanic white women have consistently voted at higher rates than their male counterparts. In the 2020 presidential election, 68% of registered Latinas voted, compared to 62% of registered Latinos. Today, this rising electorate makes up 12% of all registered women voters in the United States.

Latina voters are a diverse group, varying by race, ethnicity, and generational status. However, several factors distinguish them, including their geographic concentrations and their overall youth compared to non-Hispanic women voters.

The average age of registered Latina voters is 45, compared to 53 for non-Hispanic white women—a difference of eight years. Latinas are also concentrated in specific states and regions and are likely to wield significant influence in five states where they make up over 20% of registered women voters: Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas.

These states are critically important in the Electoral College, representing 116 electoral votes, or 21.6% of the total, and 43% of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

In California, the nation's most populous state with 54 electoral votes, Latinas account for one in three registered women voters. In Texas, the second-largest state, Latinas comprise 28% of registered women voters and 37% in New Mexico.

Latinas are also pivotal in swing states like Arizona, where they make up 21% of registered women voters, and Nevada, where they represent 22%.

Latina Futures research emphasizes that Latinas are key for political campaigns and interest groups, as they actively encourage family members and community stakeholders to participate in the electoral process. "As trusted messengers, Latinas can relay information to two important groups of potential voters often overlooked: low-propensity individuals, who historically do not vote, and new registrants," the brief states.

Latina voices could be especially impactful in competitive districts, where issues like reproductive rights and affordable childcare and healthcare are at the forefront of political debates, offering critical distinctions between candidates. Their growing share of voters in Arizona and Texas is notable, given the contentious debates in both states over women's reproductive rights.

According to a recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, Latino voters' preference for which party controls Congress stands at 54% for Democrats and 42% for Republicans. However, the Democratic lead has shrunk to its lowest level in the past four presidential cycles due to an increasing number of young latino men who favor Donald Trump, whose impact could be offset by the high participation of Latina voters—who may ultimately decide the direction of the Latino vote in this closely contested race.