Allred Gains Momentum Against Ted Cruz in Texas Senate Race, With Forecaster Improving His Chances

The Texas Senate race continues to heat up as Democratic Rep. Colin Allred maintains his momentum with less than 35 days to go until Election Day, further closing his gap against incumbent MAGA ally and incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

A notable shift in the race took place on Tuesday, when the Cook Political Report, one of the major independent, non-partisan elections and campaign analysis organizations, shifted the hotly-contested Senate race from "Likely Republican" to "Leaning Republican," signifying a close contest in the once-comfortable GOP territory.

Jessica Taylor, the forecaster's Senate and gubernatorial editor, said Allred's fundraising and ad spending, coupled with Cruz being on defense on abortion and a trip the senator took to Cancun during a severe winter storm in 2021, have helped Democrats in the state.

The U.S. Rep., who was relatively unknown statewide when he entered the race, has already built a substantial campaign, raising over $41 million by the end of June and surpassing Cruz in fundraising totals. He also received several high-profile endorsements from non-Democrats, including former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney.

Democrats have increasingly set their sights on Texas, as well as Florida, this cycle. Last week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced a multimillion dollar investment in television advertising in the two red-leaning states.

The multimillion-dollar investment will be primarily used in ads designed to increase Allred's name recognition across the state. His campaign has already been focusing on saturating media markets across the Lone Star state.

"Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense," DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said. "All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott's damaged standings in their states— and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating. Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns in both states, and as we escalate our communications against Sens. Cruz and Scott we will crystallize the case against them."

But despite Democrats' efforts, Allred still faces an uphill battle winning the seat.

A polling average based on 32 surveys from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Cruz leading the race by 2.9 percentage points, at 48% to Allred' 45%. That places the incumbent with a 75% chance of winning a third term, the news organization argues.

Overall, the senate map is tilted in Republicans' favor, with the GOP likely only needing to take down incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana to capture the chamber. The hill forecasts Republicans having a 705 chance of winning the Senate in November.

Allred's momentum comes as his best opportunity at increasing his chances of an upset is approaching. The two candidates have agreed to have a televised debate on October 15 at WFAA-TV's studio in Dallas. The event will be moderated by WFAA's Jason Whitely and The Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers Jr.