Josh Hawley Challenger Lucas Kunce's chances of winning his Missouri primary race, according to the polls

The Democratic candidate that will likely challenge Missouri Senator Josh Hawley in the November elections has recently reduced the incumbent's lead, but is still trailing as the time to go to the polls nears.

Lucas Kunce has a commanding lead in the Democratic primaries, which will take place on August 6, and has been polled against Hawley, the high-profile firebrand Republican, since late 2023, according to an analysis by HNGN.

The latest survey related to the Democratic primaries and registered by the FiveThirtyEight aggregator, conducted on July 10 and 11 by the Remington Research Group, showed Kunce with 39% of the support, almost 20 percentage points ahead of the runner-up, state senator Karla May.

Considering Kunce as the shoe-in candidate, other polls have been comparing his chances against Hawley for months. This year's progression has shown him to somewhat reduce the distance with the incumbent, although it's still a significant one.

A survey by Emerson College among over 1,800 registered voters in late January had Hawley with 43% of the support, compared to Kunce's 30%. The distance was the same in early March, although both enjoyed higher levels of support: a study by Remington Research Group had Hawley with 53% to Kunce's 30%.

However, figures from Emerson College from mid-June among 1,000 registered voters showed a smaller gap. Hawley had 47% of the support compared to Kunce's 38%. Although still far away, the Democrat managed to reduce the distance from 14 percentage points to nine.

According to KCUR, the state's NPR affiliate, Kunce is "emphasizing his experience as a Marine — and his economically difficult upbringing in Jefferson City — as a comparison to Hawley."

"What I want to do in this race and when I'm in the U.S. Senate is fundamentally change who has power in this country," Kunce said. He is seeking to make a run for the Senate after losing a contentious primary to Trudy Busch Valentine in 2022.

The candidate is seeking to build momentum based on extensive donations received. The outlet noted that he has often outraised Hawley and also gotten endorsement from labor unions in the state.

"I truly believe that the only way we're going to have power in this country against these massive corporations who buy off politicians to take advantage of us is by being able to come together and organize and come together as one and stand in solidarity," Kunce said.