Trump ally Kari Lake's chances of beating Ruben Gallego in Arizona after winning her primary, according to polls

Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) are projected to face each other in November in one of the most hotly contested Congressional races this year, as both parties consider it critical to gain control of the Senate. But how close will this race be, according to the latst polls?

Gallego and Lake both won their spot on the ballots on Tuesday in a slate of primary elections in Arizona. Lake— a former television anchor who previously ran for governor in 2022 and lost— defeated Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and Elizabeth Reye, a neuroscientist who positioned herself as a "Reagan Republican." Gallego, on the other hand, ran uncontested in the Democratic primary.

Republicans had previously been largely pessimistic about Lake's ability to appeal to a broader audience, as Latinos make up a large portion of the state. But now, as Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee and Republicans go on the offense on immigration, dubbing her as the "border czar," they believe she could gain more momentum.

On the other hand, Democrats are hopeful that if Harris picks Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly— who has proven to poll well among Latinos, Democrats and independents alike due to his border policies— as her running mate, Gallego could benefit. However, this could be unlikely as Wall Street donors have been pressed to cut their checks soon given a financial rule preventing them to do so for tickets including sitting governors.

But what are the polls suggesting?

An Emerson College poll found Gallego is leading Lake by four points (46% to 42%). The poll surveyed 800 Arizonans on July 22-23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Similarly, a Public Policy Polling survey on July 19-20 found Gallego leading by seven points (49% to 42%). The poll was conducted among 736 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Other studies show similar results. For instance, The Hill averaged 37 polls between Gallego and Lake, finding the Democrat leading the race with 47.1% of support, compared to Lake's 43%. Nevertheless, analysts still expect a tight race, with both candidates trading leads within the margins of error.

The two candidates are running to replace Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who became an independent. The race is viewed as one of the most crucial Senate contests that could determine who controls the chamber in 2025. This race is also viewed as a must-win for Democrats, who are defending several seats in Republican-leaning states with only a 51-seat majority.

Arizona is roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans. For much of the 2000s and 2010s, the state was seen as having a Republican lean, backing every Republican presidential candidate for five election cycles. But following former President Donald Trump's 2016 victory, in which he carried Arizona, Democrats have seen growing success as Phoenix, Tucson and their suburbs become increasingly Democratic, Newsweek reports.