Harris leads Trump among Latinos, but race is much tighter in English-dominant households

A recent poll by Reuters/Ipsos found that Vice President Kamala Harris continues to have a comfortable lead over former President Donald Trump among Latino voters, with a 13-point lead. Another poll released on Wednesday by UnidosUS found the gap to be even wider, with Harris holding a whopping 27 point lead over the Republican candidate.

However, one of the most revealing insights from the UnidosUS poll conducted by BSP Research was that the gap between the candidates appears to shorten when taking into account the dominant language spoken in the Latino household polled.

In Spanish-dominant households, Harris has the support of 64% of Latino voters, with Trump receiving 30%. Among bilingual households, Harris leads with 54% support compared to Trump's 33%. However, in English-dominant households, Harris's lead narrows, with 51% backing her and 38% supporting Trump, a 21-point drop.

In an interview with NBC News, Clarissa Martinez de Castro, Vice President for Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS, explained that Latino voters who are more comfortable speaking in Spanish "see a higher level of alignment with the Democratic Party". As the article exemplifies:

"When asked which party shares their values regarding the American Dream, 55% of respondents in Spanish-speaking households chose Democrats, compared to 22% who chose Republicans. In English-speaking households, the split was 39% Democrats to 25% Republicans, and in bilingual households, 39% favored Democrats while 33% supported Republicans."

Martinez de Castro also noted that English-speaking households were less likely to report being contacted by political parties or campaigns than Spanish-speaking households. About 64% of English-speaking respondents reported no contact, compared to 55% of Spanish-speaking respondents and 46% of bilingual respondents.

Overall, the poll found that 59% of Latinos said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, compared to 32% for Trump. However, Roberto Suro, a professor at the University of Southern California, cautioned to NBC News that 59% is not an impressive figure for a Democrat among Latinos, noting that Harris has yet to match the 65% support that President Joe Biden received from Latino voters in 2020. "It's still very much a horse race and she's not necessarily ahead," concluded Suro.