Harris widens polling gap with Trump among women post-DNC, but the elections remain close

Vice President Kamala Harris is continuing her momentum in the polls, now widening the gap with former President Trump among women, a major voting group that could determine the winner in November, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

The new poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel from Aug. 23-27, in English and Spanish, among a random sample of 2,496 adults. Partisan divisions in the study were 29%-29%-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points.

The poll found the race continues to remain close, with no overall bounce in support for Harris out of her nominating convention. A similar trend was seen with Trump, who also remained bounce-free after his convention in July, indicating the locked-in nature of their highly polarized contest as it enters its final two months, according to ABC News.

However, the Vice President has had a notable jump among women. She now leads Trump 54% to 41% among that group. Before last month's DNC, Harris edged Trump among women by only 6 percentage points.

Much of this movement can be credited to white people. White women have gone from +13 points for Trump pre-convention to a virtual dead heat (Trump +2) now.

Similarly, these figures are a continuation of a constant struggle by the Trump campaign to appeal to female voters.

After Trump took office in 2016, women boosted the "blue wave" of Democratic wins during the 2018 midterms. The voting bloc was again galvanized after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending federal protections for abortion, which has helped define the election by the masculinity and femininity on either side, including with policy, even before Harris became the Democratic nominee, according to Axios.

But aside from reproductive rights, Harris has retained her lead on personal attributes post-convention. These include favorability— 46% see Harris favorably as a person versus 33% for Trump— and (more closely) being seen as qualified for the office, 53% for Harris, 47% for Trump.

Harris also leads in six key issues— health care, protecting American democracy, Supreme Court appointments, gun violence, abortion and race relations—, while Trump has a lead on handling the economy, inflation, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war. The two remain tied on crime and safety, an issue on which Trump had led Biden by 7 points in July.

The new ABC News/Ipsos poll is just the latest that shows Harris holding on to a razor-thin edge over Trump, who has largely dismissed the boost in support for the vice president. For instance, a polling index by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, shows Harris holding a 4.1-point national lead over Trump ahead of November.