Donald Trump's Proposed Tariffs Could Increase Friction In Already Fragile Bilateral Relationships With Mexico

SEATTLE - Experts and politicians all across North America continue to raise their concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's plans of imposing tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imported goods if they fail to curb the flow of undocumented immigrants and illicit drugs from entering U.S. soil.

Recent comments this week by Trump about how Mexico and Canada are "bringing crime and drugs" into the United States has increased tensions between all three North American partners. To Trump's threats of imposing a 25% tariff, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum replied with a strong posture, saying Mexico "negotiates as equals, there is no subordination here," Sheinbaum said on a Tuesday press conference.

As things continue to unfold, experts and former government officials in both Mexico and the U.S. continue to raise their concerns about how the bilateral relationship between both countries will suffer and deteriorate if Trump goes ahead with his plans.

Eduardo Guerrero, a Mexico City security consultant, told The Wall Street Journal that Trump imposing economic sanctions on its largest trading partner without an actual strategy on how to deal with drug cartels would only add volatility to the already fragile relationship.

"Bilateral cooperation would be an opportunity for both countries, but unilateral action by the U.S. will be seen as a threat by Mexico," Guerrero said.

As the three parties prepare to undergo a review and renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, Guerrero argues that, out of the three main concerns up for negotiation —migration, trade and security—, the latter is the most complex, as Sheinbaum's predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador refused Trump's proposal of a military intervention in Mexican soil during his first term.

With how high the stakes currently are, Craig Deare, Trump's former senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council believes that the minimal miscalculation on one or both parts could make things "slip out of control."

The long-term costs will greatly exceed the short-term benefit," Deare added.

And according to Sheinbaum's latest comments in response to a Trump letter, disconformity can be seen on the Mexican side already. While talking at her Nov. 26th morning press conference, Sheinbaum addressed Trump's latest claims saying "we don't produce the weapons, we don't consume the synthetic drugs, but unfortunately, we are the ones who suffer the deaths due to crime in response to the drug demand from your country," she said, reading from a letter addressed to Trump.

But according to Jorge Castañeda, a former Mexican foreign minister and expert on bilateral relationships, Sheinbaum's response could prove to be a double-edged sword. "They clearly are not prepared for this and are simply lecturing Americans, something that most Americans detest," he added.

But despite complications in the early days of the Trump-Sheinbaum relationship, some lawmakers in the Republican party have expressed optimism about building stronger ties with Mexico during the Sheinbaum administration.

"The possibilities are better than the last administration, just based on our relationships with some of Sheinbaum's top security people," says Rep. Dan Crenshaw, (R., Texas). "She has a reputation for being a bit more pragmatic and less ideological," he added.