Looming Tariff War Could Jeopardize 140,000 Jobs in Border Region, Top Business Leader Says

Close to 150,000 jobs in the border area between El Paso and Juarez could be in jeopardy if President-elect Donald Trump decides to impose tariffs on Mexican exports and catalyzes a tit-for-tat measure from the Claudia Sheinbaum administration, a top local business leader said.

Jerry Pacheco, president and CEO of the Border Industrial Association said that "it remains to be seen how real this is," but that the mere threat of such a scenario is already halting some planned investments in the area.

"Announcing these things in public, even if it's just a leverage stunt, is very unhelpful because it puts the brakes on everybody investing in the area and wanting to expand," Pacheco said, according to Border Report. He said that, overall, 140,000 jobs could be in danger if matters escalate.

He warned that expected retaliation from Mexico and Canada will make the North American countries "go down a rabbit hole in terms of a trade war with our most important commercial partners" in the region.

Trump said on Monday that Mexico and Canada are "bringing crime and drugs" to the country and suggested he would impose a "25% tariff on all products coming into the United States" on the first day of his administration, prompting his future Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, to respond.

Sheinbaum said in a letter that a ""a tariff will provoke a counter-tariff" on U.S. products, emphasizing that such economic moves would be ineffective in addressing the drug and immigration crises impacting both nations and would instead "jeopardize shared industries."

"President Trump, the migration phenomenon and drug consumption in the United States will not be addressed through threats or tariffs. Tackling these major challenges requires cooperation and mutual understanding. A tariff will provoke a counter-tariff, and so on, until we jeopardize shared industries. Yes, shared industries—many of Mexico's top exporters to the United States include companies like General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which have operated in Mexico for 80 years. Why impose a tax that puts them at risk? It is unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico," reads a passage of Sheinbaum's letter.

Addressing Trump's illegal immigration claims, Sheinbaum wrote that her country's immigration policies helped decrease encounters at the Mexico-U.S. border by 75% between December 2024 and November 2024. She also went on to criticize the United State's budget allocations: "If a percentage of what the U.S. allocates to war is instead directed toward building peace and development, it would fundamentally address the issue of human mobility."

A recent survey by the Harris Poll just revealed that a majority of Americans (almost 2 in 3) seem to agree with the warnings about the measures leading to increased costs for consumers, particularly for toys, electronics and clothing.

The poll highlights widespread concern over the economic impact of tariffs. Three-quarters of respondents believe companies will pass the additional costs to consumers, potentially raising household expenses by $2,600 annually. A majority of Democrats (79%), independents (68%), and Republicans (59%) agreed with the assessment.