Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2024 US Presidential Election?

A possible invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese armed forces was deemed plausible, and possibly imminent within the next 18 months as suspected Chinese drones were seen flying over the fortified island of Kinmen. Taiwanese forces were ordered to fire flares to drive away the said reconnaissance drones.

According to CBS News, the Chinese government announced military exercises in six sea zones around the Taiwan Strait and deployed ballistic missiles, a flotilla of warships and scrambled fighter jets on Thursday in its largest ever military exercises in what was deemed as a show of force during U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island. The Island’s defense ministry believes this to be a threat from CCP of an impending invasion in the coming months.

However, the question that has arised is whether China could successfully storm the Island and claim victory over the long-contested territory.

Since President Xi Jinping’s rise to power, the Peoples Liberation Army has seen significant advancements in military strength and prowess with every upgrade making the conquest of Taiwan a conceivable and imminent event. But experts and officials with significant knowledge of China’s military forces express their doubts over the nation's readiness for a strike on Taiwanese shores as it would be a massive gamble for the Chinese president.

Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Center Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies said whether China is capable of taking Taiwan or not is more a matter of logistics, budget, operational costs and how much the country is willing to lose. She also argued that U.S. officials significantly underestimate China’s preparedness for an invasion of Taiwan. It is just a question of how much of a slaughter will the engagement undertake.

An intervention by the U.S. was made possible thanks to legislation made by Congress in 1979, however, it all depends on the willingness of the Joe Biden to come to Taiwan’s aid as he is not obligated to assist the island if deemed unnecessary.

Should China successfully make landfall, the problem of urban warfare in the concrete jungles of Taiwan could prolong the conflict for months, or years.