Why the Border Security Deal is on the Brink of Collapse Even Before the Release of the Bill's Text

The border security agreement that had long been demanded by Republicans as a condition to approve a broader bill with military aid for Ukraine and Israel is on the brink of collapse even before its text is released.

After four months of negotiations, a faction within the Republican party is opposing it, especially after former President Donald Trump spoke against it. House Speaker Mike Johnson even said that the bill is "dead on arrival."

Supporters of the deal are hoping the momentum changes after the release of the text, with Republican Senator James Lankford, the party's leading negotiator, having one-on-one meetings with fellow lawmakers to address "misinformation" about it.

Another Republican Senator, Mike Rounds, suggested that Russian disinformation could be feeding into some arguments against the agreement. Rounds told Politico that "some people would rather not see funding for Ukraine."

However, it's unclear whether the text of the bill will be enough to sway enough Republicans in Capitol Hill, as Trump explicitly called for the deal to be taken down last week. Concretely, the former president said that the party shouldn't do any deal "at all, unless we get EVERYTHING."

Moreover, Punchbowl News reported on Thursday that chances for Senate GOP Leaders of securing support from at least half of the party's conference are getting worse. "Senate Minority Whip John Thune explicitly and repeatedly told Republicans that things are heading in the wrong direction, GOP senators said," according to the outlet.

President Joe Biden, on his end, pressured Republicans to pass the deal, saying that is willing to exercise the ability to shut down the border if it's passed.

"What's been negotiated would —if passed into law— be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we've ever had in our country," Biden said. "It would give me, as President, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed. And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law."

But Republicans have electoral incentives to maintain the status quo, as a new poll by new Bloomberg/Morning Consult showed that six in 10 voters from swing states say Biden bears responsibility for the surge in migration toward the United States.

And while the economy remains the top issue when it comes to deciding their votes, immigration has spiked in the latest installment of this monthly poll.

This is especially the case in Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin: concern among voters from the state spiked this month, with 20% of them naming it as their top deciding issue, compared to slightly more than 10% the month before.

There is a chance that Democrats, led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, put the bill to the floor anyway, even if its chances of passing are getting slimmer by the day.

"Schumer has a political incentive to do so. He and President Joe Biden can use a failed vote to argue that Republicans blocked the very thing they said they wanted — enhanced border security measures — in an effort to help Trump in the presidential race," explained Punchbowl.