Tensions between Colombia and Venezuela have escalated after a leaked military intelligence report revealed that rebels responsible for one of Colombia's deadliest attacks in recent years traveled through Venezuelan territory before carrying out the assault. About 100 people were killed and 40,000 displaced in the attack in the Catatumbo region.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), the world's oldest active guerrilla group, launched the attack last week, targeting a rival faction and civilians. According to the report, at least 80 combatants armed with assault rifles and explosives moved through Venezuela's border states of Táchira and Zulia before crossing into Colombia.
The violence prompted Colombian President Gustavo Petro to suspend peace talks with the ELN, declare an "internal state of commotion," and deploy troops to the border. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro also sent troops to the region.
Petro questioned how the heavily armed fighters traveled undetected from Venezuela into Colombia, suggesting potential complicity from the Maduro government. "Where did they walk through?" Petro asked, highlighting the scale of the border operation.
Analysts have highlighted the likelihood that the Maduro regime either approved the operation or played a role in planning it. "We do not have hard evidence, but it's difficult to believe it's a coincidence that the conflict erupted [when it did] due to the timing with the Maduro and Trump inaugurations," Bram Ebus, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the Guardian.
The ELN has operated in Venezuela for decades, with ties reportedly growing stronger as the country's political and economic crisis continues to deepen. Rights groups claim the Venezuelan government has collaborated with the ELN, allowing them to profit from illegal mining and use their forces to control border regions. Cristina Burelli of SOS Orinoco, an environmental advocacy group, called the ELN "partners" of the Venezuelan state.
Venezuela has denied harboring the ELN, with a high-ranking official in Maduro's administration accusing Petro of betraying his leftist roots. "That man is a zombie; he has ruined all his prestige. There is nothing left of the leftwing person he once was," the official told Spanish newspaper El País.
Meanwhile, Petro has urged Venezuela to block illegal crossings and improve border security, while Colombia's Foreign Minister Luis Murillo pressed the issue at the United Nations.
As tensions rise, experts warn that the conflict in Catatumbo could escalate further. "De-escalation is definitely what is needed now," Ebus said. "The big fear is that Catatumbo could spiral and the ELN could try to take the whole border region."
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