President Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to "protect" the Social Security program, but experts watching the reorganization led by those spearheading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) predict it will soon collapse.
Former Social Security Commissioner Martin O'Malley recently warned that the administration is heading for a meltdown within 90 days if it continues on its current trajectory. "Everything they're doing is driving this agency to system collapse," O'Malley told CNN.
With growing concerns over Social Security's future, the debate over its solvency has become a focal point. While government watchdogs have long warned of an inevitable collapse, Trump claims his administration is strengthening the program by eliminating fraud and boosting the economy.
However, economic analysts argue that Trump's proposed policies may actually speed up the program's financial instability. In line with O'Malley's warning, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watchdog group, recently suggested that Trump's plans for mass deportations, tariffs, and tax cuts could push Social Security closer to insolvency.
Political scientist and former U.S. diplomat Michael Montgomery told The Latin Times that the way Trump handles immigration will be a major factor. "[Undocumented workers] put money in and can't take money out—if we do some massive immigration crackdown, this subsidy of the long-term solvency of the American Social Security system will go away,"
Montgomery is one of hundreds of scholars who believe the program is headed for collapse. "The basic assumption behind Social Security was that labor force participation would always be growing. But its growth has slowed and, in some cases, stopped. We were also assuming that people wouldn't live very long," he explained.
With warnings of an impending crisis, here's a closer look at everything Trump has said about Social Security.
"We're going to get fraud out of there"
During a joint session of Congress last week, Trump said his administration was actively working to eliminate fraud within the Social Security system. The top Republican leader claimed that millions of people between the ages of 100 and 160 were still listed in Social Security databases and receiving checks.
"Money is being paid to many of them," he said. "We're going to get fraud out of there."
Social Security insiders were quick to fact-check the president, pointing out that while these individuals may still appear in the system, they are not receiving benefits. According to the Social Security Administration's website, the agency automatically terminates benefits for individuals at the age of 115.
While Trump has promised not to cut Social Security benefits unless fraud is found within the program, it remains unclear what Musk and DOGE will define as fraud following their investigation of the agency.
"Social Security won't be touched"
Trump has repeatedly promised to keep Social Security benefits intact. In a February Fox News interview, he once again stated, "Social Security won't be touched—It's going to be strengthened. But it won't be touched."
During his second presidential campaign, Trump posted a video message to his Truth Social account pledging to "help seniors on fixed incomes who are suffering the ravages of Comrade Kamala Harris' inflation nightmare."
In the video, Trump vowed to "always protect Social Security as I did just four years ago." He continued, "Senior citizens will be happy and they will be safe—and they will be getting their money."
"No tax on Social Security benefits"
In the same video message, Trump promised not to tax Social Security benefits. He described the practice as a "cruel double taxation," adding that the tax—introduced in 1984—was originally meant to impact only a small number of recipients. "Now nearly half of all seniors are forced to pay—this tax has hit the seniors very, very hard every single year." Trump concluded the video by saying he would "end the injustice."
Officials from Trump's administration recently told CNBC that he plans to "double down" on this promise. Critics argue that eliminating the tax could reduce Social Security funding and push the program closer to insolvency.
A budget model created by the University of Pennsylvania estimates that eliminating income taxes on Social Security could cut U.S. revenue by $1.5 trillion over a decade while increasing the country's debt burden by 7% by 2054.
"I will not raise the retirement age by a single day"
In June 2024, Trump told supporters at a campaign rally, "I will not cut one penny from Social Security or Medicare, and I will not raise the retirement age by one day."
Observers have mixed reactions to this stance. Some commend his commitment to preserving benefits without altering eligibility requirements, emphasizing the program's importance for retirees' financial stability. However, others worry about Social Security's long-term solvency.
Where Social Security Stands Today
As of 2024, Social Security is the government's biggest budget item and largest program, accounting for $1.46 trillion in spending. As of December 2023, approximately 67.1 million individuals received Social Security benefits, including retired workers, disabled workers, survivors of deceased workers, and their families.
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