Trump holds thinner lead against Biden in Florida after guilty verdict in hush money case

The 2024 Presidential election campaign cycle has been incredibly busy thus far. In the past days alone, former president and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump made history after being convicted guilty in a criminal trial, while incumbent Joe Biden sought to shut down the border amid a continuing immigration crisis.

As the contest nears and both parties become increasingly polarized, both candidates remain tight in the polls. And one state where it didn't seem it would be the case, Florida, has shown surprising numbers as Trump is holding a few percentage points edge against Biden, a new Fox News study shows.

The survey looked at over 1,000 voters' perspectives in the Sunshine State, and it is the first post-hush money trial study published. It shows Trump holding a 50% support, just four percentage points ahead of President Biden in a state where Republicans expect to have a million more registered voters than the Democratic Party by November.

Since the verdict, Trump has seen decreasing support in the state of Florida, where he resides. Last month, Trump had led Biden 51% to 42%, according to a study by the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

When it comes to female voters in Florida, the two candidates are tied. Among male voters, Trump holds a razor-thin majority, the survey shows.

On the other hand, Biden is leading among moderates, independent voters, college grads and Urban voters, which the poll argues shows his emerging competitive showing in a state that he lost in 2020 and trails poorly in most polls this cycle.

This study is the latest in the growing literature that shows Trump and Biden going head to head in November.

Those numbers have gotten even closer after the presumptive GOP nominee was found guilty in 34 felony counts in New York City last week.

In the Fox News survey, 52% of Floridians believed the verdict was fair, a figure that included 92% of Democrats, 65% of independents, and even 15% of Republicans.

Similar studies regarding first impressions post-trial indicate similar perspectives. According to a post-verdict analysis of nearly 2,000 interviews with voters who previously participated in New York Times/Siena College surveys, Trump's advantage over the president has narrowed from three points to one point.

A worrisome aspect for Trump is the specific areas where he appears to be bleeding support, according to The New York Times analysis. In that study, disengaged Democratic-leaning voters and those who dislike both Trump and Biden were more likely to say that the verdict made them reconsider their options in the election, two groups who have previously played a significant role in boosting Trump's polling performance in recent months.