Trump and Harris in Dead Heat in Border Swing State, Poll Shows

With less than 50 days to go until Election Day, most eyes across the country are on battleground states as they are expected to ultimately decide the outcome of the presidential race. How some of them will turn, however, continues to be a mystery, as neither former President Donald Trump or Vice President hold a conclusive lead at the moment.

That is especially the case of Arizona, where the two candidates seem to be a virtual tie, with the former President holding a small and almost nonexistent lead, a new survey shows.

The poll was conducted by Data Orbital among over 500 likely voters in the Grand Canyon State between Sept. 7-9. It holds a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26%.

The study found the GOP nominee to hold a narrow edge of 0.2% on the Vice President, standing at 46.2% to her 46%. Remarkably, 7.7% of Arizona voters remain undecided or refused to answer and are theoretically up for grabs in the highly competitive state, AZ Free News reports.

"That 7.7% undecided number, I would say, is going to be one of two things: 1) either individuals that are saying that they are likely to vote but don't end up voting or 2) people that are truly undecided. But I would be shocked if the true undecided number is in the high single digits," George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, said.

"I would guess that right now, the true percentage of people that are undecided is maybe one or two percent, if that. This is a high-profile race and so most people have made up their minds. But I think a portion of people that are undecided likely will not end up making a decision on November 5," he continued. "And even if they come out and vote, they may just not vote in the presidential election or will write in somebody random."

Other polls show a similar pattern when it comes to this high-profile state.

For instance, FiveThirtyEight, averaging national polls, places the former President at the top, but only by 0.3% point, almost identical to Data Orbital's figures.

Likewise, The Hill, in an average of 27 polls also ties Trump and Harris, but this time with the exact same percentage, both standing at 47.2%.

When it comes to issues, voters in Arizona are similar to the rest of the country. In the Data Orbital poll, the "economy, inflation and cost of living," ranked at the top of 30.4% of most important issues for voters, followed by "the border and immigration," for 28.7% of respondents, and "abortion/pro-choice/women's rights" for 18.3%.

The results of the survey come as Arizona is facing scrutiny after election officials discovered a flaw in the state's voter registration that could disqualify nearly 100,000 people from voting in state and local races just weeks before early ballots will hit mailboxes, NPR reports.

Officials say a glitch mistakenly marked that certain voters had provided documentation proving their citizenship— which is required to vote in state and local races in Arizona— when there's no record that they had.

Such documentation isn't required to cast ballots for federal office, so the glitch would not affect voters' ability to vote in the presidential race. But it could affect state legislative races and Arizona's ballot referendums on abortion rights.

The issue has been described as a "clerical error" and a "coding glitch" that isn't part of any organized scheme to undermine the integrity of the 2024 election.

"At the end of the day, it was a clerical error that we want to get resolved for the voters," said Taylor Kinnerup, a spokeswoman for the Maricopa County Recorder's office, which helps run elections in the Phoenix area and discovered the problem earlier this month.