Kari Lake improves stance in Arizona Senate race in GOP-funded poll but still trails Democrat Gallego

Republican Kari Lake continues to trail Democrat Ruben Gallego in polls measuring their support ahead of the Arizona Senate elections.

The latest study, conducted by Trafalgar Group between September 11 and 12 among 1,088 likely voters, shows Lake behind by four percentage points, garnering 43% of the prospective votes, compared to Gallego's 47%.

Even though it's a smaller margin than the two previous studies included in FiveThirtyEight's aggregator, this one was funded by the GOP. Lake has rejected surveys showing her behind her opponent, telling NewsNation that she is actually ahead in her "internal polling."

As the race continues, Gallego has gotten significant backing as he seeks to maintain the lead. Concretely, the PAC affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, CHC BOLD PAC, is investing $1.1 million in ads targeting Latinas across the state. Titled "Las Jefas" (The bosses). It is the biggest spend in the group's history, according to NBC News.

"Raised by a single, working mother, Gallego knows who is boss in Arizona. Grandmothers, mothers, sisters. The bosses. And in the Senate he will fight for them," says a narrator in the ad.

Gallego also got a boost from an endorsement by the state's police association. In a letter published on X, the APA, described as the "largest police/public safety association i the state, representing thousands of active law enforcement officers, said Gallego "has continually fought for robust, increased funding for America's Law Enforcement."

Lake reacted to the news with a publication on X, saying that Gallego has "spent nearly a decade in DC undermining our law enforcement & making America less safe." "Our campaign has overwhelming support from Arizona Law Enforcement because they know that I want to help them in their mission to make America safe."

The two candidates are set to face each other in a debate on October 9, organized by the Arizona Clean Elections Commission. Some in the state GOP have criticized the fact that the election commission excluded Eduardo Quintana, the Green Party's candidate, saying the decision is illegal.