Trump-backed millionaire Eric Hovde's chances of stealing a Wisconsin Senate seat from Democrats

Wisconsin businessman Eric Hovde won on Tuesday the GOP's senatorial primary, setting up a contest against incumbent Tammy Baldwin. Backed by former President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans, Hovde easily beat two lesser-known opponents, while Baldwin ran unopposed.

Considering the matchup was widely expected, pollsters already started measuring the then-prospective candidates' chances against each other in different surveys.

Several such studies were published between late July and early August. And while results oscillate, they share a common denominator: Baldwin is ahead in all of them.

The closest gap comes from a poll by Marquette University Law School conducted between July 24 and August 1, which showed Baldwin getting 52% of the support, compared to Hovde's 47%.

On the other end of the spectrum lies a study by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research. It surveyed 1,046 registered voters between July 22 and 24 and concluded that the incumbent was favored by 54% of respondents, while Hovde had 43% of the support.

All other studies showed Baldwin ahead by margins in between, with the latest poll (conducted between August 8 and 11 by the Bullfinch Group) showing a 50% to 41% advantage for the Democrat.

Baldwin won re-election by 11 percentage points in 2018 and by 5 points in 2012, vastly outperforming the winner of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections: both Trump and President Joe Biden did so by less than 1 percentage point.

The seat is seen as key for both parties as they vie for control of the Senate. Hovde, a wealthy businessman, has lent his campaign $13 million. But Baldwin's has so far spent more than double ($30 million) and had over $6 million more in her war chest by late July. This compares to Hovde's $3.1 million by July 24.

Both candidates have already been criticizing each other as election day gets closer. According to NBC News, one of Baldwin's most recent ads shows children of single mothers, a reference to an audio of Hovde saying children "born out of wedlock" are on "a direct path to a life of poverty."

Hovde, on his end, aired a TV spot saying: "The false attacks are going to keep coming because she has nothing to run on. Her record has failed us on inflation, the border and crime." He adds later, "It's time for change."