Trump ally Kari Lake's chances of winning a Senate seat in Arizona are dwindling, new polls suggest

As the Arizona senatorial elections continue to near, the latest figures show that Republican candidateKari Lake is now trailing her opponent, Democrat Ruben Gallego, by a larger margin than before.

Concretely, a study by HighGround shows Gallego with a double-digit lead over Lake, getting 49.6% of the support compared to 38.6% for the Republican. Another 9.2% said they didn't know or refused to answer, while the remaining 2.6% said they would vote for another candidate.

"These polling numbers follow a disappointing primary performance where Lake greatly underperformed in a primary she was expected to dominate," the study said. It went on to say that Gallego is also "slightly outperforming (Vice President Kamala) Harris among Democrats, picking up 88.2% of the vote."

In contrast, Lake is underperforming Donald Trump by nearly five points, earning the support of 74.7% of Republican voters. Her trailing by 18 percentage points among independents (50.7% to 32.8%) add to the challenges she faces to take the senate seat.

"It appears that Gallego has continued the Democratic trend that we have seen in the past few cycles of engaging independent and unaffiliated voters early. He has built a significant lead that will be difficult to overcome without a significant course correction by Lake," said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc.

In fact, Gallego is beating Lake in practically all demographics, the only outlier being male respondents, where the two were tied at 43.5%. "Barring a significant alteration in the race, it looks extremely likely that Gallego will prevail in November. Republicans will be taking this race off the board nationally and focusing resources on other more competitive US Senate races like Montana and Ohio. As the acclaimed Phoenix Suns broadcaster Al McCoy used to say, 'you can put this one in the deep freeze," said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc.

Democrats have increased their appeal in Arizona after decades of GOP dominance. Although Republicans continue to have more registered voters in the state, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly, Gov. Katie Hobbs and others have gathered narrow victories by holding their party together, dominating among independents and getting support from an outsized share of Republicans advocating against the MAGA section of the party, according to the Associated Press.

The study shows an expanding lead for Gallego, who in late July led Lake by four points (46% to 42%), according to a poll by Emerson College.

Similarly, a Public Policy Polling survey on July 19-20 found Gallego leading by seven points (49% to 42%). The poll was conducted among 736 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

And The Hill averaged 37 polls between Gallego and Lake, finding the Democrat leading the race with 47.1% of support, compared to Lake's 43%. A poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies from early august was closer to that figure, although widening the lead: it showed Gallego leading Lake by 42% to 36%.