Trump-Backed Eric Hovde's chances of winning a Wisconsin Senate seat, according to September polls

Republican businessman Eric Hovde continues to face an uphill climb in his quest to win a Senate seat in Wisconsin, according to the polls released so far this month.

September's studies compiled by FiveThirtyEight show Hovde trailing incumbent Tammy Baldwin by between six and eight percentage points.

In the latest one, released by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph, which surveyed 626 likely voters between September 6 and 9, the Democrat has 46% of the support compared to Hovde's 39%. Two other candidates get 1% of the votes each.

Three others show similar gaps. The largest one is from a YouGov and CBS News poll among 946 likely voters, where Baldwin got 51% of the votes compared to Hovde's 43%. The closest, in turn, was conducted by co/efficient and showed Baldwin with 49% and Hovde with 43%.

Baldwin, who's seeking a third term in the Senate, has been leading Hovde for the entirety of the race. Her worst performance came in a July 24-Aug. 1 survey that put her ahead by 5 points, 52% to 47%. Baldwin's biggest lead was 11 points, 54% to 43%, recorded during a Fox News poll conducted in late July.

Baldwin won re-election by 11 percentage points in 2018 and by 5 points in 2012, vastly outperforming the winner of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections: both Trump and President Joe Biden did so by less than 1 percentage point.

The seat is seen as key for both parties as they vie for control of the Senate. Democrats narrowly control the Senate, 51-49, but are widely expected to lose the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

If they hold on to the other 22 seats up for grabs in November and don't flip any others, the tie-breaking vote would be held by whomever is elected vice president.

Both candidates have already been criticizing each other as election day gets closer. According to NBC News, one of Baldwin's most recent ads shows children of single mothers, a reference to an audio of Hovde saying children "born out of wedlock" are on "a direct path to a life of poverty."

Hovde, on his end, aired a TV spot saying: "The false attacks are going to keep coming because she has nothing to run on. Her record has failed us on inflation, the border and crime." He adds later, "It's time for change."

Trump endorsed Hovde during an April campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where he called Baldwin a "very weak candidate" and told Hovde, "You better win," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported at the time. "I mean, if you lose to her, that's not a good thing, OK?" Trump said.

Trump, who's outperforming Hovde in the Badger State, is trailing Kamala Harris by 2.7 percentage points as of September 11, according to FiveThirtyEight.