Trump ally Kari Lake continues to trail opponent Gallego in Arizona elections, poll shows

Republican candidate for the Arizona Senate elections Kari Lake continues to trail her opponent, Democrat Ruben Gallego, as the time to go to the polls gets closer.

The latest study, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies among 592 likely voters between August 12 and 15, has the Democrat ahead by a 5-point difference, 44% to 39%.

The figure shows a smaller distance compared to two polls also published this month by The New York Times/Sienna College. One conducted among 677 likely voters had the Democrat with a wide, 9-point lead (51% to 42%), while another one among the same amount of registered voters showed a 49%-41% scenario favoring the Democrat.

However, the narrower margin from the most recent study doesn't necessarily mean a change of trend, as a previous batch of polls showed a much closer race. Two studies sponsored by Republican entities in late July and early August had Gallego with a 2-point lead and a 46%-46% parity, respectively.

Moreover, another study by HighGround shows Gallego with a double-digit lead over Lake, getting 49.6% of the support compared to 38.6% for the Republican. Another 9.2% said they didn't know or refused to answer, while the remaining 2.6% said they would vote for another candidate.

"These polling numbers follow a disappointing primary performance where Lake greatly underperformed in a primary she was expected to dominate," the study explained. It went on to say that Gallego is also "slightly outperforming (Vice President Kamala) Harris among Democrats, picking up 88.2% of the vote."

In contrast, Lake is underperforming Donald Trump by nearly five points, earning the support of 74.7% of Republican voters. Her trailing by 18 percentage points among independents (50.7% to 32.8%) add to the challenges she faces to take the senate seat.

Democrats have increased their appeal in Arizona after decades of GOP dominance. Although Republicans continue to have more registered voters in the state, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly, Gov. Katie Hobbs and others have gathered narrow victories by holding their party together, dominating among independents and getting support from an outsized share of Republicans advocating against the MAGA section of the party, according to the Associated Press.

At the national level, Kamala Harris is surging in the state, much of it having to do with the Latino vote. An Axios Vibes survey revealed last week that she has galvanized the demographic, with 83% of registered Latino Democratic voters nationwide saying they're "extremely likely" to vote, up from 71% back in July when President Biden was still the party's candidate.

At the senate level, 63% of Latinos said they would support Gallego, compared to 29% choosing Lake.