March 1 is Super Tuesday, the presidential primary battle spread out among 12 states that will determine about one half of the Republican delegates and about one third of Democratic delegates ahead of the parties’ summer nominating conventions. The math of party delegates is complex and varies by state. When it comes to the Latino vote, two states could make a significant difference for the top candidates in both parties, including Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Republican frontrunners Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
The first is Texas, where Hispanics make up about 30 percent of the voting-age population. In Texas, Republicans have 155 delegates up for grabs and Democrats have 222, more than any other Super Tuesday state. Here are a few things to watch for in Texas.
Can Bernie Sanders Buck Establishment Hispanics?
Sanders and Clinton’s campaigns have quibbled over which candidate won the Hispanic vote in Nevada this month. As we pointed last week, Sanders’ outperformed expectations just be being competitive. In Texas, Clinton will have a second chance at establishing a “Hispanic firewall.” Sanders will have to prove that there’s no such firewall among voters, even if Latino politicians and celebrities have been lining up squarely behind his rival.
On Monday, Clinton received an endorsement from the PAC representing the Hispanic Caucus. She’s already received endorsements and sustained rhetorical support from Texas’ two most important Latino politicians, brothers Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian and Representative Joaquín Castro.
Can Ted Cruz Run Up The Score?
Trump is hoping to win in Texas so that he can embarrass Sen. Cruz in his home state. But Cruz will have to do more than just win the most votes. Texas delegates are assigned to candidates who earn 20 percent of the vote. With Trump and Rubio on track to do just that, Cruz needs to beat Trump handily. Failing to score a lot of points in Texas could spell the end of Cruz’s candidacy.
Do Latinos “Love Trump?”
Cruz, Rubio and Trump faced their first big test with Hispanic voters in Nevada last week. While the data isn’t perfect, it looks like Trump won. In Texas, Cruz might leverage the Hispanic vote to run up the score against Trump. In his 2012 Senate campaign, Cruz earned a larger percentage of the Hispanic vote than Mitt Romney (27 percent), the GOP presidential candidate that year.
It’s unclear what segment of the Hispanic GOP voter base will support the senator against Trump and Rubio. Trump has recently consolidated support from immigration hardliners. Rubio has become the de facto moderate on immigration. When it comes to other issues that Latinos care a lot about -- the economy, education, and health care -- it’s not sure what issue, if any, Cruz can get a significant edge with.
Can Candidates Compete Among Hispanics In Colorado?
Colorado is not a make-or-break state for nominations, but it will be highly competitive race in the general election. Candidates who do will in Colorado’s Super Tuesday primary can calm supporters who question their electability -- an issue that has been raised against all of the top candidates. Sanders and Trump in particular needs to prove that they can do well with Hispanics. The flipside of course is that their rivals need to prove that they cannot.
Will Colorado’s Vote Matter Today?
Delegates are particularly unimportant in Colorado, especially on the Democratic side. They’re allowed to change their mind at the convention. But, Hispanics could flex their muscle in the state, where they make up around 15 percent of the voter-eligible population in Colorado. In other words, Hispanics in Colorado could tip the election to either Sanders or Clinton, but the victory will only be rhetorical, like a super accurate poll. Colorado’s vote won’t matter on Tuesday, except to the extent that it gives or takes away rhetorical momentum in the race.
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