Fans and gamblers alike are flocking to Las Vegas this weekend as the 2015 Super Bowl is set to break the all-time record for wagers according to the Nevada sports books. Fueling the fire behind the bets is the marquee matchup between one of the NFL’s top offenses versus its top defense. Last years Seahawks-Broncos matchup raked in over $119 million in wagers and this year’s battle between the New England Patriots and defending champion Seahawks is expected to break that record as soon as all tickets are totaled.
The Patriots are on fire from a betting perspective as they are 12-2 in their last 14 games against the spread. They NFL’s foremost dynasty over the past decade is appearing in their 6th Super Bowl in 14 seasons and seek their fourth championship and first since 2005.
The original line opened up last Sunday after the Patriots dismantled the Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship game. It opened at Seattle -2.5, but within a few days, the betting public went all-in on the Patriots and the line moved. Over 72 percent of bets are with the Patriots and since last Sunday, the line has moved to New England -2. It is one of the first times in history that the public has swayed the line from one team being favorite to win to the other.
From a gambling standpoint, this is a classic example of either following the trend, or bucking the trend. With a better overall team, the New England Patriots definitely have what it takes to win the big game. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense has been scorching hot this postseason averaging over 40 points game. They feature a better receiving corps in Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. They have an underrated running attack in LeGarrette Blount who is just as big and physical as the Seahawks Marshawn Lynch.
Unlike the Broncos last year, the Patriots defense is a silent assassin. They finished seventh in the league in scoring defense and have been even better over the final six games of the season.
Seattle ranks number one in scoring defense and will more than likely keep the Patriots from scoring 40 points on Sunday. If they can rush Brady the way they did Peyton Manning in New York last year, than they will have a clear advantage in this game.
The Seahawks looked sloppy on offense in the NFC Championship game against the Packers, and if they play like that again in Super Bowl XLIX, they will lose. Good news for Seattle is they are 19-4 against the spread as underdogs and underdogs are 10-3 in the past 13 Super Bowls. Additionally, the NFC is an overwhelming 6-1 against the spread in the past seven Super Bowls. The icing on the cake? The Patriots are only 1-5 against the spread in their past six Super Bowl appearances. The one drawback for the Seahawks is that all five teams who have returned to the Super Bowl as an underdog have lost.
We anticipate this game to be much closer than the Seahawks victory over the Broncos last year. The game could go either way, and from that standpoint we like teasing the Seahawks and the over. We still feel that defense wins championships and the Seahawks as underdogs are just too juicy to pass up.
Prediction: 31-27 Seattle Seahawks
Betting Odds Courtesy of Bovada.lv:
New England: -2 (-105)
Seattle Seahawks: +2 (-115)
Over/Under: 48
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