We had to be the bearer of bad news, but after Tigres U.A.N.L.'s dominant 3-0 victory over Pumas U.N.A.M. in the first leg of the Liga MX 2015 Apertura final, it would take a miracle over epic proportions to see anybody but Ricardo "Tuca" Ferretti's men lift the trophy on Sunday night.
Tigres is just 90 minutes away from winning their fourth ever Liga Mx title, and their first since the Apertura in 2011. After shredding Pumas' paper-thin defense on Thursday, you can expect Tigres' offense to go anemic on Sunday evening as their only focus will be to park the bus and not surrender more than two goals.
For those reading this that will watch the final on Sunday evening or witness it live in Mexico City, expect Tigres to dominate the "Three P's" of soccer: possession, passing and patience. With the title all but secured, Los Auriazules will fall back on their stout defense in order to control possession and Pumas' aggressive and desperate attack.
Tuca Ferretti knows that Tigres does not to win this leg, nor do they even need to score to be crowned the champions of Mexico. Expect a conservative approach from the former interim national team coach and other than the occasional opportunities created by Javier Aquino and Jurgen Damm exposing Pumas with their speed down the left and right flanks, scoring will be hard to come by in this match.
Pumas will attempt to pull off the greatest comeback in Liga MX history, and in order to do that, they will overload their offensive attach with Ismael Sosa, Eduardo Herrera, Matias Britos and Fidel Martinez. These players can no longer sit back waiting for opportunities to arise, they need to seize them from the game's first whistle and never look back.
An early goal could ignite the feverish crowd into a frenzy and put all the pressure on Tigres as Pumas would just need two more goals to send the game into extra time. It sounds a lot easier than it actually will be however, considering Tigres is one of the best defensive clubs in Mexico, and Pumas has not scored three goals in a game since their socking 3-0 victory over a nine-man Club America squad in the semifinals.
To make matters worse, Tigres goalkeeper, Nahuel Guzman, has been a virtual brick wall in net for Los Auriazules over the past month. The Argentine netminder has pitched five clean sheets in his last six games, and although the team's possession and back four has made life as easy for Guzman has he only has had to make a handful of saves in each match, it seems very unlikely after only allowing one goal in his Mexican career that he suddenly will allow three in one game.
If you're a fan of Pumas, the outcome looks bleak, but there is hope. Pumas will be able to feed off the energy at home in the Olimpico Universitario where they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their tough-minded defense plays a lot better at home and if somehow Tigres makes some mental mistakes like picking up a red card or two, things could get very interesting, very fast as momentum turns to the side of Los Felinos.
Despite all this, the three goal mountain that Pumas needs to climb in order to be crowned champions of Mexico seems to be just too impossible an obstacle to overcome. We expect Pumas to win the match, but not title.
Prediction: 1-0 Pumas, Tigres wins the 2015 Apertura Title 3-1 on aggregate.
Betting Favorite: Tigres -120
Over/Under 2.5 goals
The game will kick off at 9:30PM EST from the Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City. It will are live on Univision and can be live streamed for free here.
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