We are a little over 24 hours away from the most anticipated fight in boxing history when Floyd "Money" Mayweather takes on Manny "Pacman" Pacquiao on Saturday, May 2nd at the MGM Grand Hotel in Las Vegas.
Even more interesting than the fight itself is the millions of dollars surrounding the fight. From the projected $300 million both fighters are set to collect for stepping into the ring, to the expected $120 million in wagers Sin City casinos believe gamblers will bet on the historic bout, money will be flowing in the desert this weekend.
The Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight is expected to be the most bet upon sporting event of the year behind only the Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. Already oddsmakers believe that the wagers will eclipse the record of the 2014 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Denver Broncos that raked in a haul of $119 million.
The MGM Grand Garden Arena where the fight is being held has already generated a live gate of $74 million, a record for any sporting event in Las Vegas. Current ticket prices are 10 times higher than face value, and the $99.99 PPV price tag to watch the fight from the comfort of your home is also a record.
Pacquiao is the underdog in the fight, but much like the 2014 Denver Broncos, he is expected to be the betting favorite. Mayweather is more like the Seahawks in the sense that the wise guys and boxing experts believe he will win the fight. The line on the outcome of the fight has changed slightly since the bout was announced in early March. Currently, Mayweather is a -225 moneyline favorite, whereas Pacquiao is a +175 moneyline underdog (odds courtesy of Bovada.lv).
The oddsmakers believe that Mayweather will remain undefeated and move to 48-0 in a 12-round decision. Currently the odds of Mayweather winning by decision stand at -135 on the moneyline. This outcome seems to be the most likely as neither Pacquiao or Mayweather has knocked out their opponent since 2011.
Ironically, if there is going to be a knockout, Vegas believes that it will come at the hands of Pacquiao as a "Pacman" knockout pays a +400 moneyline. A Mayweather knockout, which we believe is the more likely knockout scenario after seeing what happened to Pacquiao against a notorious strong counter-puncher in Juan Manuel Marquez, is currently paying +550 on the moneyline.
Two good paying bets if you're feeling risky is to take Pacquiao to win by decision at +375 which we believe has value especially if Pacquiao can win the early rounds. Another interesting bet is the draw at +1200. Money drives the sport of prize fighting and a rematch would be the only scenario that an event could draw even more hype and money than this one. Mayweather would likely not give a rematch if he wins the fight, but if the fight were to end in a draw, a rematch would be a certainty. If you are a conspiracy theorist who believes in "fight fixing," then put $100 on the draw and you could take home $1200 in profits.
There are a few prop bets of interest for the degenerate gamblers out there. If you think the outcome is a coin-flip, than put some dough on the fight going the full 12 rounds at -300 ML. If you are a knockout enthusiast, +230 ML for the fight to end before the final bell is a fun bet.
You can also bet on who will throw the first punch. Mayweather is -125 ML favorite to throw the first blow with Pacquiao at +105. What hand will the first punch come from? The left hand is -130 ML whereas the right hand jab of Pacquiao is +100 ML.
If you don't want to pay the exuberant prices to watch the fight, and don't have the availability to watch it in a public setting like a sports bar or theater, there are a few options available to you. Sky Sports out of England is streaming the fight online for around $31. If you have access to Filipino channels the fight can be watched there for free as well as Mexican TV channels Televisa and Azteca. There will be a few pirate sites that will try and stream the fight, but we warn that HBO and Showtime are trying to shut them all done. Currently you can live stream the fight for free here and here, as long as they are not shut down before Saturday.
Finally, as boxing writers, we have seen a lot of fights in our day. We've been in the press box at countless bouts and reported, researched and interviewed even more. Like everyone, we are excited for this fight, unlike the majority of people out there; we believe this fight will not live up to the hype. Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters the sport has ever seen. His shoulder roll is as famous as Manning's pump fake. We think the first few rounds will be interesting as the adrenaline will be injected and the pressure of putting on a good show will overwhelm both fighters.
After that, Mayweather will stick to what he does best, dodging, creating distance, blocking punches, and counter punching. As much as we would love to see Pacquiao pull off the upset, you can't hurt a turtle who doesn't come out of his shell. Defense wins championships and Mayweather's defense in the late rounds will lead to another undramatic ending to a "Money" Mayweather event.
Prediction: Mayweather wins by decision.
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