Trump maintains a lead over Harris in Florida despite momentum, poll shows

With the elections less than 100 days away and Vice President Harris becoming the official Democratic nominee, polls continue to predict a tight race in November, with Harris seeming gaining ground among Latinos. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's base in some states, including his home state of Florida, is solidifying.

A new poll of likely Florida voters from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research (PORL) shows Trump is ahead of Harris in a sample of 774 respondents who said they were definitely or probably voting in the upcoming elections.

When asked who they would vote for if the Presidential election were held today, 49% of respondents said former President Donald Trump, with 42% indicating a vote for Vice President Harris, and 4% saying they would vote for another candidate.

"It's not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020," said PORL faculty director and professor of political science Michael Binder. "With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida."

The results come as other studies show the Democratic party uniting behind Vice President Harris.

A recent poll by BSP Research provides reasons for optimism among Democrats, as it shows Harris with a significant lead over her opponent among Latinos. The firm suggests Harris leads Trump by 55% to 37% among Latinos in battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.

"Harris enters as the nominee with a very strong lead among Latinos," says BSP Research pollster Gary Segura. "We focused only on the battlegrounds, with a large enough sample in them to arrive at a confident estimate of the two-party vote in the states that will actually decide the elections— not in states where the outcome is already determined, like Texas and California."

Another poll from New York Times/Siena College of over 1100 registered voters nationwide showed Democrats mostly rallying behind Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14% saying they would prefer another option.

But while battleground states are still up for question, Florida remains a red state.

Florida has voted Republican in 12 of the last 17 presidential elections, dating back to 1952. Trump beat Biden in 2020 in Florida 51% to 47%. The last Republican to win the White House without winning Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Floridians in the UNF poll also opined on the upcoming Senatorial race. Respondents said if the elections were held today, 47% indicated Republican incumbent Rick Scott, and 43% expressed support for Democrat Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

"What's really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who's only up by four— just inside the margin of error of this poll," said Bider. "Scott has a history of winning razor thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be a race for Scott."