With the Senate gearing up for a vote on the immigration reform bill, lawmakers on opposite sides of the aisle have showed disagreement on the bill's chances of passing. Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), one of the "Gang of Eight" senators who crafted the bill, now says he doesn't support the legislation as it currently stands and has told the press that there aren't enough supporters to bypass a Republican filibuster of the legislation.
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has shown himself confident that it will. And Chuck Schumer (D-NY), another member of the "Gang of Eight," boasted recently that he anticipates as many as 70 of the 100 US senators to vote in favor of the bill. Opposition to the bill from many conservatives has been strident, but less attention has been paid to the Democratic stragglers -- those who may vote against the wishes of Democratic Party leadership when June 10 arrives.
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Two years ago, five Democrats joined Senate Republicans in voting down the DREAM Act, which would have given young undocumented immigrants whose parents brought them here at an early age a path to legal status if they enrolled in college or joined the military. One of the Democrats chose not to seek another term in office. Another, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, may be a swing vote. About 325,000 undocumented immigrants live in her state, and agriculture is a big industry in North Carolina -- one that draws much of its workforce from abroad.
She told the Charlotte Observer recently, "I oppose amnesty, but a pathway to citizenship can take a lot of different forms."
Mark Pryor of Arkansas, another Democrat who voted against the DREAM Act, had earlier given signs that he would support it.
The other two anti-DREAM Act Democrats are from Montana. In 2007, the last time lawmakers took a crack at passing comprehensive immigration reform legislation, Senators Max Baucus and Jon Tester voted against it on the grounds that it gave amnesty to undocumented immigrants.
"I cannot support a bill that provides amnesty for illegal immigrants," Baucus said then. Tester struck a somewhat less uncompromising note in emphasizing border security: "There's no way I can support a new law that does nothing to make us safer and gives 12 million people living here illegally a free pass," he said. Baucus has also trashed the Affordable Care Act as a "train wreck."
Three other senators' votes appear to hang in the balance. Joe Donnelly of Indiana has pushed in the past for immigration reform, but it may not be the kind the Senate is offering. In 2010, Donnelly ran an ad in which he said, "Deport illegals who commit felonies and eliminate amnesty because no one should ever be rewarded for breaking the law." Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, skipped the DREAM Act vote in 2010 and has fought for gun control, which is unpopular in his home state. He mused to USA Today not long ago that he might not need to take on his home state on more than one issue.
The eighth and possibly final Democratic senator who may not vote for the bill is Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, who voted against the immigration law in 2007.
"People who have broken the law to enter this country are still given a generous path to citizenship while authorized guest workers and siblings, parents and adult children of U.S. citizens are given a lesser path," Landrieu said then.
The bill will come to a vote in the Senate on June 10.
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