House Republicans Already Worried About Retaining Their Majority As Ominous Signs Mount

After Tuesday night's Democratic victory for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, coupled with Republican losses earlier this year in local elections, the GOP is growing increasingly anxious about their prospects for the 2026 midterm elections, urging party leaders to focus on pocketbook issues.

Inside the GOP, there is a growing sense that the party should get back to basics and focus on the pocketbook issues that many voters sent them to Washington to address, Politico reports. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is also worried that Republican members seeking higher office could cost him the speaker's gavel.

"Any time popular members of Congress from swing areas seek statewide office it creates challenges— usually expanding the map for the opposition party," said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster.

House Republicans are mostly concerned about three congressmen, according to Axios. The anxiety comes in the wake of a landslide defeat in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race and double-digit underperformance in two Florida special elections.

Among those three congressmen is Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who is considering running for New York governor. President Trump lost Lawler's district by a percentage point in November, while Lawler won by six points.

Similarly, Rep. John James (R-Mich.) is weighing a run for Michigan governor. Trump won James' district by a percentage point in 2020 and six points in 2024. James won his race by six points.

Finally, Johnson is looking out for Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) who may launch a bid to replace retiring former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, and Barr won by 26. But Democrats hold a registration edge and Barr survived a competitive contest in 2018.

The Trump administration has also shown signs of growing anxiety. Last week, the president abruptly pulled his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be United Nations ambassador, fearing her seat could be lost. The move reportedly left other GOP members "blindsided."

As worries grow, GOP members are urging party leaders to return their focus to pocketbook issues. However, the party also seems to be divided there, as there's internal disagreements about the effects of Trump's new tariffs announced Wednesday. Some say they will ultimately lead to reviving American manufacturing— but even many of the president's allies fear they could drive up prices and potentially crash the economy, according to Politico.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of the most vulnerable GOP senators facing reelection next year, said in an interview that Republicans must be "smart and measured," otherwise they risk a major backlash at the polls. Tillis pointed to the early opposition against then-President Barack Obama, which led to a 2010 wave election where Democrats lost a number of seats in the House, Senate and state legislatures, including the North Carolina House, where Tillis was subsequently elected speaker by the new GOP majority.

"What we don't want to do is overreach," said Tillis. "We've got to be careful not to do the same thing. And I think that these elections are going to be proxies, or almost like weather devices for figuring out what kind of storm we're going to be up against next year."