Democrats are 'back in business' with Latin voters due to Harris' candidacy, poll shows

Vice President Kamala Harris entering the presidential race has been a "reset" for the Latino electorate, with a recent analysis claiming that the scenario looks "more in line with the other Trump-era elections of 2020 and 2022 than wide a wide partisan realignment."

The conclusion, reached by Equis Research's Carlos Odio and Maria Di Franco Quiñonez, comes as new polling with Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket shows a drastic change of trend compared to President Joe Biden's declining support among the demographic.

"In our polling this cycle, as in public polls, we saw results that occasionally made us question what was actual movement in the electorate, what were merely expressions of discontent, and what were polling errors immune to adjustment," reads a passage of the analysis. "With the entrance of Kamala Harris, we are seeing results that are back in a historically normal range," it adds.

An Equis poll in seven battleground states, conducted between July 22 and August 4 among registered voters, showed Harris ahead by 56% to 37%. The previous study, fielded May 16-June 6 when Biden was still the presidential candidate, had the incumbent ahead by 5 percentage points (46% to 41%).

Taking a more granular look, Harris has gained with most subgroups, the most "notable pick-up" being "among younger Latinos." "Harris' support among Latinos under 40 is 17 points higher than Biden's was. She is at 60% with the young Hispanics, compared to Biden's 43%," the analysis details.

"Her 59% support among Latina women is up from 50% for Biden in early June. Among men, she saw a similarly sized bump, moving her from 41% to 51%," it adds. Looking at political leaning, Harris has also seen widespread gains, increasing her support by 16 points among liberals, 12 among moderates and 7 with conservatives.

Moreover, a third of her overall gains come from the so-called "double-haters," that is those who disliked both Biden and Trump "Harris has the support of 65% of double-haters. Only 11% would vote for Trump. The other 1-in-4 are still up for grabs, and/or inclined to abstain," Equis explained.

However, despite her gains, the pollsters note that Harris is still lagging behind the level of support Biden had in 2020 and helped him take the White House. They then add that "of course," she does not need to "match Biden's 2020 Latino performance everywhere in order to win."

"Nevada is a state where our scenarios suggest she has some wiggle room, if non-Latino support levels remain relatively stable. Arizona, a state that Biden won by a fraction of a percentage point, is more of a tightrope: Harris would likely need Latino support in the same range as in 2020. She is currently a mere 2 points shy," they explain.

Looking at "unknowns," the pollster name the level of support that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy could get (now standing at 9%, the lowest recorded so far); the amount of undecided voters and the new ones.

In sum, Equis concludes, Harris' strong start "appears to have forestalled some of the most outlandish scenarios for the Latino vote." "Out the gate, the vice president has quickly amassed the support of a wide swath of discontented Hispanic voters, and she still has running room. What those last Latino voters do could determine the overall result in hotly contested states."