Democrat Matt Cartwright's Chances of Holding on to his House Seat in Pennsylvania's 8th District, according to polls

Pennsylvania is one of the most consequential battleground states in the presidential race, potentially being the state that decides who will occupy the White House next. However, it is also home to several competitive congressional races, such as the one on the 8th Congressional district, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright and GOP challenger Rob Bresnahan are tussling in an expensive race.

Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District is one of 37 congressional districts with a Democratic incumbent or an open seat that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is targeting in 2024, according to Ballotpedia.

Cartwright, a Representative seeking his fourth term in the House, is comfortably leading in the polls, with the latest survey by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 23-25 showing him leading the race at 50% to 43%. However, the Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss up.

Cartwright was first elected to the U.S. House in 2012, defeating incumbent Tim Holden in the Democratic primary. In 2020 and 2022, Cartwright defeated Jim Bognet (R), winning 51.8%-48.2% and 51.2%-48.8%, respectively.

Bresnahan, on the other hand, is new to politics, previously joining his grandfather's electrical contracting company as chief financial officer, then becoming chief executive officer after graduating from college. His relative lack of name recognition could actually be an advantage to him, according to Ballotpedia.

"Republicans and Democrats agree that [Bresnahan] is a strong recruit and, as a political newcomer, doesn't have a voting record that can be mined by the Cartwright campaign," says PolitiFact's Louis Jacobson.

The race for Pennsylvania's 8th district, which comprises the northeast region of the state and all of Wayne, Pike and Lackawanna counties, along with portions of Luzerne and Monroe counties, has gathered the attention of household names from both parties, particularly Republicans.

GOP leaders like House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Burgess Owens, have each visited The Keystone State to campaign for Bresnahan. On the other hand, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is supporting Cartwright's campaign through their Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents.

This race is also "expected to be one of the most expensive and hotly contested in the country," according to WVIA's Borys Krawczeniuk.

Based on reports filed with the Federal Election Commission in the second quarter of 2024, Cartwright had raised $5.7 million and spent $1.2 million, and Bresnahan had raised $2.6 million and spent $1.3 million.

But the race for the House seat is not the first time Bresnahan and Cartwright have met. In fact, the now GOP challenger contributed $2,000 to Cartwright's 2022 campaign, mainly because the congressman backed a since-abandoned natural gas plant near Nanticoke, the passenger train and a Susquehanna River levee for West Pittston, WVIA reports.

Since then, Cartwright has only toed the Democratic line in Washington and voted against border security, he said.

"My job is to advocate for the people of northeastern Pennsylvania," he said. "I love the people... this is a way I can give back to northeastern Pennsylvania in a totally different way."

However, for Bresnahan, he sees in Cartwright an entrenched politician who repeatedly votes against his congressional district's interests by voting with his party all the time.

"You can't go down to D.C. and vote with your party nearly 100% of the time and say, 'This is what's best for Washington, this is what's best for northeastern Pennsylvania,'" Bresnahan said.