Canada Prepares For Potential Migrant Surge at the Northern Border Ahead of Trump's Second Term

President-elect Donald Trump is doubling down on his anti-immigrant rhetoric, continuing to promise to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in "American history." Just this week, Trump confirmed he plans to use military assets to deport migrants. But as these proposals become more concrete, U.S.'s northern neighbor, Canada, fears the new measures will have a ripple effect in its own immigration.

Canadian officials are drawing up plans to add patrols, buy new vehicles and set up emergency reception facilities at the border between New York State and the province Quebec to prepare for what they expect to be a surge in migrants thanks to Trump's crackdown on American migration, The New York Times reports.

Canada's worries come as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced in October that the country will significantly reduce the number of new immigrants it allows in after acknowledging that his government failed to get the balance right coming out of the pandemic.

Trudeau's Liberal government has been the subject of criticism for its plan to allow 500,000 new permanent residents into the country in each of the next two years. On Thursday, he said next year's target will now be 395,000 new permanent residents and that the figure will drop to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, The Associated Press reported.

"In the tumultuous times as we emerged from the pandemic, between addressing labor needs and maintaining population growth, we didn't get the balance right," Trudeau said. "Immigration is essential for Canada's future, but it must be controlled and it must be sustainable."

Now, as Canadian border officials prepare to tighten up the U.S.-Canada border— adding more staff, more vehicles and more detention and processing facilities— they are also expecting an increase in migrant crossings once Trump takes office in January.

"We knew that, if Mr. Trump came into power, the status quo at the border would change," Sgt. Charles Poirier said.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has identified enforcement agencies that could be tapped to divert extra staff to the border. The agency would also seek to add more patrol vehicles and use land along the border to set up trailers or other types of temporary detention and processing facilities, according to The New York Times.

The Canadian authorities also intend to wield a key agreement between the two countries to send back people crossing into Canada to seek asylum. The agreement designates Canada and the United States as "safe third countries" in which to make asylum claims, so when asylum seekers travel from one country to the other, they can be sent back, with few exceptions.

Official data from the U.S. Borders and Customs Protection agency shows that from October 2023 to September 2024, more than 19,300 undocumented migrants were apprehended by the American authorities at the border between Quebec and Vermont, New York State and New Hampshire, a 300% jump from the 6,925 apprehended during the same period the previous year.