For All Of Trump's Immigration Enforcement Methods, The Most Effective Is The Cheapest One, Former CBP Chief Says

Border security dominated the 2024 election campaign, with now President-elect Donald Trump's promises of an immigration crackdown and mass deportations playing a significant role in his victory and boosting Republican candidates in border regions. In contrast, President Joe Biden's and the Democratic party's policies and perceived weakness hurt them, prompting key candidates to adopt more conservative stances on the issue—a shift that came too late to sway voters.

Biden's Spending and Policy Outcomes

While top Republican leaders such as Texas Governor Greg Abbott have criticized Biden's "open border policies," data obtained by the American Immigration Council shows that his administration spent a hefty amount on border enforcement during the last four years, comparable to Trump's first term budget allocations for agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol. However, a key distinction lies in the outcomes of their policies and the underlying factors driving those results.

Record Highs and Policy Turning Points

During the Biden administration, border security faced unprecedented challenges, with Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 recording 1.7 million encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border—a record high. An MSNBC "Morning Joe" contributor recently suggested that "the border was not Biden's finest moment," highlighting the sharp increase in the number of encounters between border officials and migrants along the border with Mexico after he took office.

In June 2024, months prior to the presidential election, Biden issued an executive order that significantly tightened asylum rules, making it much more difficult for migrants to seek asylum and remain in the country. This order marked a turning point; following its implementation, border apprehensions dropped by a staggering 77%—almost all the way back to where they were four years earlier.

However, in an interview with the Latin Times, border security expert Dr. Victor Manjarrez Jr. noted that the numbers were still historically high. "They weren't record-low crossings. They were much lower from his previous years, but if you go all the way back to the last 20 years, they were still higher for almost every single June or July—we've never seen these kinds of numbers," explained Manjarrez, who has over 20 years of experience in various Border Patrol and operational roles within the Department of Homeland Security.

Trump's First Term: The Power of Perception

During Trump's first term, border apprehensions clocked in at 303,916 in FY 2017, peaking in FY 2019 with over 859,501 encounters before declining to about 400,651 in FY 2020. According to Manjarrez, the explanation for this divergence doesn't lie in increased spending or additional resources but in the concept of "perceived consequences."

"From my experience as a chief patrol agent, we would have congressional delegations offer us resources like helicopters, personnel, and technology. But the thing that had the biggest impact was what people perceived as a potential consequence of illegal entry," Manjarrez explained. "That is the biggest tool."

It is worth noting that while the raw numbers of migrant encounters were much higher under Biden, the percentages of illegal immigrants removed under both administrations were similar: 47% removed under Trump and 51% under Biden, per Fact Check.

Looking Ahead: Trump's Second Term

As Trump and his incoming border czar Thomas Homan have repeatedly promised to execute the "largest" deportation in U.S. history, observers expect his second term in office to be much pricier than the first. A report by the American Immigration Council estimated that deporting one million undocumented immigrants would cost over $88 billion.

While Manjarrez questions the logistical possibility of deporting more than 11 million people in the next four years, he emphasized that the strongest border security tool Trump can provide to agencies is "perception."

Manjarrez drew a comparison between Trump's first term and Obama's presidency, noting "there wasn't much technology that came in. It was kind of status quo from the Obama administration, but yet the numbers were lower—perception matters. Once there's a perceived consequence for entry, the flow slows down."

Questioning Trump's Approach

However effective, the border expert pointed to Trump's "abrasive and unwelcoming" approach to border security as his biggest fault, suggesting he could leverage his support for foreign worker visa programs—which he uses to staff his businesses—as a counterbalance. He also expressed the importance of revisiting asylum policies, which he believes are the root cause of the border crisis.

"Our asylum laws haven't changed much since the end of World War II. I had great hope Biden would revisit this process, but his administration never completed it," he noted. "Do I expect Trump to do so? No, especially not early on in his term, based on his campaign. Perhaps later in his term he'll look at the source of the issue and why it's occurring."

A Hybrid Approach?

Manjarrez closed the interview by highlighting the Biden administration's lesser-discussed accomplishments, including investments in border security technology, immigration services, and ports of entry.

"I wish I could combine both approaches. If I had to choose, I'd say Trump's focus on improving border security feels more sustainable. That said, I hope he builds on the strides made under the Biden administration, particularly in advancing technology at ports of entry. Leveraging AI alongside surveillance systems could secure the border more effectively while offering greater efficiency for taxpayers."