2016 Presidential Election: GOP Candidate Needs 47 Percent Of The Latino Vote, Study Explains

"A Republican nominee is going to need to be somewhere in the mid-forties, or better, among Hispanic voters," GOP strategist Whit Ayres told the National Journal in March. ( We wrote about his statement and considered if candidate Marco Rubio could win the Latino vote). A recent study by Latino Decisions supports Ayers’ argument, concluding that the GOP will need to win 42 to 47 percent of the Latino vote in battleground states in 2016. In the past, Republicans have said that a GOP candidate would only need 40 percent of the Latino vote in order to win.

However, Latino’s share of the U.S. electorate has doubled, Latino Decisions explains in a blog post . The GOP share of that vote has declined, however. In 2008, John McCain won around 28 percent of the Latino vote (exit polls varied widely). The party saw its highest peak (around 40 percent*) during George W. Bush’s incumbent election, and bottomed out the last presidential election, when Mitt Romney got a mere 23 percent (against incumbent Barack Obama). Authors David Damore Matt A. Barreto say that demographic changes have moved the goal posts for Republicans and if they want to win they’ll have to net nearly half of the Latino vote .

“The conventional wisdom often asserted by pundits and in media reports that winning 40 percent of the Latino vote will be sufficient for the Republicans to carry the presidency in 2016 is farcical [....] Every month over 50,000 Latinos celebrate their 18th birthdays,” they said in the post. “Meanwhile, a 40 percent threshold becomes a 47 percent threshold.”

Latino Decisions took into account some factors that will hurt Democrats, like reduced African American voter turnout in an Obamaless election. The analysis also takes into account the quirks of the electoral college, in which swing states are the deciding factor in national elections. Damore and Barreto say that a Republican presidential candidate will have to snag between 42 and 47 of the states’ (Latino vote): Nevada (45 percent), Florida (47 percent), New Mexico (42 percent), Ohio (43 percent), Virginia (46 percent) and Colorado (44 percent).

The Latino Decisions analysis follows a Univision poll that showed leading Republicans polling very poorly amongst Latinos. Jeb Bush led the poll with 27 percent of Latino voters saying that they would vote for him in a matchup with Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, a white, non-Latina woman. Ayer’s candidate Marco Rubio, who is Cuban-American, came in at a mere 25 percent.

Despite the apparent disaster for the GOP, conservatives are hopeful that they can capture the Latino vote. Ayers recently collaborated on a story with the Wall Street Journal, in which journalist Fred Barnes outlines how Republican Cory Gardner overcame low Hispanic support to beat incumbent Democrat Mark Udall in the 2014 midterm election.

“Mr. Gardner had a problem: Colorado’s population is 22% Hispanic and the poll found that Mr. Gardner was supported by only 11% of Hispanic voters, a dismal showing. Mr. Gardner says he was ‘unknown to the Hispanic community’ yet determined to increase his visibility. He appeared at Hispanic events. He was respectful of Hispanic values and sympathetic with difficulties facing Hispanic families. He advertised on Spanish-language radio and TV. Jeb Bush cut a TV spot for him in Spanish, Marco Rubio one in English. Mr. Gardner advocated immigration reform that included beefed-up border security and a guest-worker program.”

Taken together, Latino Decision's modeling and Univision’s recent polls make it look impossible for the GOP to win the Latino vote, even for those Spanish-speaking, Florida-serving Rubios and Bushes vying for the Republican nomination. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Scott walker? Those polls say “not a chance.”

Gardner’s story, however, demonstrates how much can happen between announcement and election day. If Gardner can win an election with the help of Bush and Rubio, it’s not unreasonable to think that one of those candidates could win significant Latino support. Could that happen without advocating some sort of constructive immigration reform, without being "respectful of Hispanic values"? Probably not, Donald.

*Matt Barreto kindly pointed out that our initial figure, 44 percent, was incorrect. "The exit polls did initially report that on election night, but they eventually retracted that, admitting their data was wrong. The exit polls adjusted the 2004 number to 40% and many experts estimate 38-39% in 2004."