US Coronavirus Death Toll Expected To Spike Up In 3 Weeks, Says Expert Epidemiologist

Even as China slowly inches towards a coronavirus-free nation and is planning to lift all its restrictions soon, other countries are still either in the middle or just beginning to feel the wrath of the ongoing pandemic. Currently, in the latter stage, America is predicted to observe a significant peak in the number of deaths from the coronavirus outbreak in three weeks as per a leading epidemiologist.

As per the epidemiologist, Ira Longini, professor at the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, “the U.S. will hit a peak in deaths in the next two-three weeks, as the doubling time seems to be about two-three days."

"Maybe a partial lifting of the shelter-in-place for those less vulnerable may make some sense, in about three weeks. By then, much of the damage will have been done,” he further added. Longini is currently working with U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Covid-19 modeling.

His observation of the sudden surge in the death toll may upset the health care systems and make it even more difficult to provide the needed help in intensive cases. But as Longinin mentioned that after the surge “much of the damage will have been done,” it can also lead to a reduction in restrictions on movement soon after, even with the chances of the virus circulating again.

"If it were limited, and we continued to protect the most vulnerable, that may be acceptable for now. Also, let's see what happens in the next two-three weeks. We can also keep an eye on China as they begin to relax restrictions there,” Longini said.

"My notions are harmonious in that I also anticipate ... (the next) three to six weeks will be critical here in the United States," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University, supporting Longini’s observations.

But he also expressed the possibility that the peak may take six weeks as the U.S. is a "very diverse country with a hot spot in New York right now and warm spots. The rest of the country is warming up. In the next three to six weeks, all those areas will start to surge or will have their curve depressed or blunted by the social distancing that's going on. The virus will tell us."