Trump's Mass Deportations Will Hit Restaurant Industry As Hard As Pandemic, Economist Warns

President-elect Donald Trump's plan to conduct the "largest deportation operation in American history" has the potential to significantly alter many landscapes across the country.

One of them is the restaurant industry, which heavily relies on the undocumented immigrant population for staffing and also comprise a large portion of the food industry from which they source their products.

More expensive menus, higher wages and increased closures are some of the consequences that mass deportations would have. However, according to Marcus Noland, an economist with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The economist told Reuters that restaurants will be a "hard-hit sector" if Trump effectively carries out mass deportations. His company estimated that prices in the service sector could rise by 1.7% if the incoming administration deports 1.3 million workers.

The figure would rise to a staggering 11% if all working undocumented immigrants (8.3 million, according to the Pew Research Center's latest estimate) were to be deported. "You saw this during the pandemic when many restaurants had restricted hours, smaller menus and worse service," Noland told the outlet.

Others are waiting to see whether the policies will be carried out." I see little risk of them deporting people that are working at jobs in restaurants or anywhere else in the food industry," said Dan Ahrens, chief operating officer and portfolio manager of AdvisorShares. The sentiment was echoed by two other economists interviewed.

Upstream, however, the concern is higher. While the number of undocumented immigrant workers taking arduous and low-paying agricultural jobs has decreased over the last 10 years, per U.S. Department of Labor data, the population still makes up nearly half the sector's workforce. According to the federal agency, immigrants account for two-thirds of the nation's crop farmworkers, with two out of five lacking legal authorization to work in the country.

While Trump has indicated his administration would initially focus on deporting immigrants with a criminal background, in a recent NBC interview the Republican leader revealed that the "others" would follow. His announcements, along with those made by incoming border czar Thomas Homan, have sent shockwaves through immigrant communities–and their employers.

At a general level, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that deporting 8.3 million undocumented immigrants could cut the GDP by 7.4% and reduce employment by 7% by 2028. This might lead to no economic growth during Trump's potential second term.