Trump's Bold Deportation Plan Faces Major Hurdles: Millions at Risk, Nations Resist Repatriation

While President-Elect Donald Trump prepares plans for a wide-ranging deportation campaign, logistical challenges arise, particularly with countries that resist accepting deportees. Deportable individuals include those with criminal convictions, pending charges, or exhausted appeals. Yet, even with final removal orders, deportations are hindered by countries refusing or delaying repatriation.

For example, Cuba, China, Venezuela, and India account for some of the highest numbers of deportable people but accept only a fraction. Since 2005, Cuba has taken back just 4,662 of its 42,084 deportable citizens. China and Venezuela show similarly low acceptance rates, the Washington Post reports. In this regard, there are 22,749 deportable Venezuelans in the U.S., but the country has only accepted 5,862 people in the past 20 years.

Among the 11 million people living in the US without legal status, more than 1.4 million immigrants have final removal orders, according to the latest data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This group, one of "border czar" Tom Homan's priority, faces immediate risk.

Another significant group includes nearly 8 million individuals on ICE's "non-detained docket," which tracks immigrants potentially eligible for deportation while they await the outcome of court proceedings. According to the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, 5.8 million of these migrants entered the United States during President Biden's term, many with pending immigration claims or provisional statuses like humanitarian parole. These temporary protections could be revoked under Trump's proposed policies, making them vulnerable to deportation.

A group potentially vulnerable to mass deportation includes nearly 600,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela who entered the United States through President Biden's use of the "parole" program, an executive authority allowing temporary entry. Many have sought to transition to permanent legal status, such as asylum. However, their status remains uncertain, as Trump could use executive action to revoke these temporary protections, exposing them to detention and removal.

Temporary protected status (TPS) holders and the more than 500,000 beneficiaries of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) are also in Trump's sights. TPS recipients from nations like Venezuela, Haiti, and El Salvador risk losing protections if extensions are revoked. The Biden administration recently extended TPS for certain groups, but Trump could reverse these policies, subjecting hundreds of thousands to deportation.

Trump's ambitious deportation strategy prioritizes immigrants with criminal records. ICE reported 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories as of July, including 435,719 convicted individuals and 226,847 with pending charges. Immigration violations, drug crimes, and traffic offenses dominate the caseload.

Despite these priorities, enforcement faces substantial hurdles. ICE has just 5,500 officers nationwide, and recruiting new personnel is a lengthy process. With an average daily detention capacity of 40,000, Trump aides, including former ICE Acting Director Tom Homan, have called for at least 100,000 detention beds, potentially using military bases or tent facilities—plans likely to spark legal and logistical issues.

In fact, ICE officials have recently warned that the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain nonviolent crimes, could further strain its resources. The agency has identified over 60,000 individuals without legal status who would meet the bill's criteria for detention, far exceeding its current capacity. ICE has funding for only 42,000 detention beds, with 39,000 already occupied as of December. Meeting the demands of the proposed legislation would require an additional 64,000 beds, bringing the total to more than 100,000. Implementing the act would cost $3.2 billion in additional funding for the 2025 fiscal year

Flight capacity is another major bottleneck. ICE operates a limited fleet of aircraft, each capable of transporting about 135 deportees. Expansion options are constrained by available planes and international flight agreements.

One of the biggest challenges is the capacity of even cooperative nations to accept deportees. Even countries like Mexico and Guatemala, despite cooperating with ICE, lack the infrastructure to accept significantly more deportees. Family units present further complexities; legal limits on detaining minors complicate deportations involving children.

Immigrant advocates warn that mass deportation efforts risk disrupting communities and harming the labor force. Meanwhile, sanctuary policies in cities like New York and Los Angeles limit ICE's reach, underscoring the complexities of Trump's ambitious plans.

Amid fears of a heightened immigration crackdown, the country is witnessing a surge in "know-your-rights" sessions aimed at empowering undocumented immigrants. The sessions, which educate attendees on how to interact with federal immigration enforcement officers, have seen a significant increase in demand.

The uncertainty surrounding the future of immigration policies and the Trump administration's promise of the "largest deportation in U.S. history" have sent shockwaves through immigrant communities, with lawyers and nonprofit organizations reporting a surge in clients "scrambling" to "adjust their status" in anticipation of the looming policy changes.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is gearing up to challenge state laws that could ease the implementation of President-elect Donald Trump's mass deportation agenda, with the goal of creating legal barriers to hinder large-scale raids once the Republican takes office. The organization's southern border chapters announced on Tuesday, they will launch a "robust challenge" in order to contest the expansion of expedited removals and oppose the construction of new mass detention facilities.