Trump Widens Lead in Arizona as Latino Voters in the State Seem to Move Away From Harris, NYT Poll Shows

The race for the White House remains tight and intense, with less than 45 days until Election Day. As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump continue to fight for battleground states, the GOP nominee seems to be gaining a lead in Arizona, a state President Joe Biden won by less than one percentage point in 2020.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows that the former President is widening his lead in the critical state, currently standing at 50% to Harris' 45%.

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish among over 2,000 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina between Sept. 17 and 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Harris' recent standings in the state show a clear contrast between her figures in August, when the New York Times last conducted the same poll in the state. At the time, the Vice President showed a lead of five percentage points. A possible reason for this shift? Latino voters.

Latinos in Arizona appear to have moved away from Harris, the New York Times suggests. A significant figure of Latino voters in the state, 10%, say they are undecided, a move that benefits the former President.

Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,400 votes, making him the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry Truman in 1948.

Harris' numbers also come as one of Arizona's Senate seat is currently being considered one of the most important to decide the control of the Senate. In that race, Rep. Ruben Gallego is comfortably ahead of his opponent, Kari Lake, at 49% to 43%. According to the NYT poll, voters said they were more likely to support Gallego in his Senate race than Harris in the presidential one.

Interestingly, respondents who said they were splitting their ticket— supporting Gallego and Trump— were much more likely to be Latino, less college-educated and lower-income.

Another state that the former President seems to be gaining ground is in Georgia, where he currently stands at 49% to Harris' 45%. The state has been home to much controversy in recent elections, as it has been decided by a small margin of votes. In fact, in 2020, Biden also won the Peach State by just under 11,800 ballots.

But a recent surprise for the Harris camp has emerged in the past couple of weeks. In North Carolina, a state that is usually considered a safe Republican win, the Vice President is seemingly closing the gap with Trump, trailing behind by just two percentage points, at 47% to his 49%. The numbers were taken before reports were released that Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor there, made disturbing posts in a pornography forum, which some Republicans fear could hurt Trump in the state.

Robinson is currently behind the Democratic opponent Josh Stein, at 37% to Stein's 47%. Trump has closely associated himself with the GOP candidate, who among his remarks categorized himself as a "Black Nazi."

Trump's clearest path to victory is in the Sun Belt states, with both North Carolina and Georgia being essential to his hopes of returning to the White House. Meanwhile, Harris could still win her bid by losing all of these three states (Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina), given that her strongest path to victory lies in the Northern Battlegrounds, particularly Pennsylvania.