Trump Trade Official Says 'Hard To Project' Whether Tariffs Will Cause Inflation Despite Analysts Saying They Definitely Will

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Tuesday that "it's hard to project" whether President Donald Trump's tariffs will lead to a spike in inflation, even though most analysts and economist guarantee they will.

"It's hard to project what's going to happen with prices," Greer said during a Senate hearing. He added that inflation went down during Trump's first term when he imposed tariffs on China.

Tariffs are "not really a one-to-one on tariffs and price effects," Greer added, claiming that "so many things go into price." "I think the challenges, frankly, are going to be more for companies that are largely dependent on imports from China and Asia, where they have to adjust their supply chains in a quick set of time," the official said.

Greer's assessment clashes with those of top analysts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that their impact are "significantly larger than expected," but warned it's too soon to decide whether to cut interest rates as a result.

Speaking in Virginia, Powell said that the tariffs are "highly likely" to result in an "at least temporary rise in inflation," and warned that it is possible that their effects "could be more persistent," rather than a one-time shock.

Many Republicans are showing skepticism, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis asking Greer on the hearing "whose throat do I get to choke" if the policy ends up going south.

"I'm not condemning the approach because I'm not a trade expert. If you own this decision I look to you to figure out if we're going to be successful. If you don't own the decision, I'm just trying to figure out whose throat I get to choke if it's wrong and who do I put up in a platform and thank for their noble approach if they're right," Tillis asked Greer.

In another passage of his time before the microphone, Tillis added that Trump probably has until February to fix the economy before Republicans are punished at the polls. "I'm just trying to figure out if they're going to feel good about this...I wish you well but I am skeptical," the senator added.

Elsewhere, a top GOP pollster is warning that the tariffs are "exactly the opposite" of why voters supported him in the November election. Speaking to Politico, Whit Ayres said that Trump was "elected in part to lower inflation and juice the economy." "Higher prices and slower growth are exactly the opposite of what Americans voted for," he added.