Trump takes Slight Lead in Key Border State With Less Than Two Weeks to Election, New Poll Shows

All eyes in the political conversation are on the seven battleground states that are likely to decide who wins the White House as Election Day is less than two weeks away. In Arizona, former president Donald Trump is emerging with a slight lead.

A new Marist Poll shows the Republican candidate ahead by a single percentage point in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris, standing at 50% to 49%. The survey was conducted among 1,427 Arizona likely voters between Oct. 17-22. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, meaning Trump's lead is well within the margin of error.

Undecided voters were asked to choose one candidate over another, just like they will do on Election Day. When this occurred, 89% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President strongly supported their choice of candidate.

Trump currently holds the advantage among Arizona likely voters, but there's a caveat. Harris (55%) leads Trump (45%) by 10 points among independents who are likely to vote. She has widened the four-point edge she had among independents in September and improved upon the 9-point victory President Joe Biden had with the group in 2020.

Likewise, Harris (56%) has the advantage over Trump (44%) among those who say they have already voted. However, Trump (55%) leads Harris (44%) among likely voters who have yet to cast their ballots.

These figures coincide with other surveys and aggregates. For instance, a FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump leading Harris in the Grand Canyon State by 1.8 percentage points. Similarly, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's polling average shows the former president leading the Vice President by 1.3 percentage points.

The race in Arizona has caught national attention throughout the general election cycle.

For one, Harris has been able to make inroads with the Arizona electorate ever since she entered the ticket. Before Biden dropped out, he was trailing behind the GOP nominee by 3.3 percentage points. Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 0.4%, a little over 10,000 votes. Prior to 2020, only two Democratic presidential nominees in the past 72 years had won the state— Bill Clinton in 1996 and Harry Truman in 1948.

Arizona is also home to one of the most high-profile Senate races in the country, between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-ally and former television anchor Kari Lake.

Gallego holds a solid advantage in the race despite the contest still being predicted to be close. A recent polling by The New York Times and Siena College showed that 10% of Trump's supporters said they would vote for Gallego in the Senate, one of the latest examples of split ticket voters, a slice of the electorate who is willing to vote for different parties up and down the ballot.

As the campaign season draws to a close, Harris will have to bring these voters across the aisle to ultimately help her win the battleground state, the Marist survey suggests.

"For Harris to pull ahead in Arizona, she needs to make inroads with Gallego voters who are supporting Trump," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Democratic candidate Gallego is well-positioned to win the Senate contest, but Trump's inroads into Latino voters are making the contest more of a challenge for Harris.