As Donald Trump prepares for a town hall with Hispanic voters in Doral on Wednesday, recent polls indicate he is gaining significant support among Florida's Hispanic electorate. A survey by Marist College involving 1,510 likely voters reveals that Trump holds 58% support among Hispanic voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails at 40%. This trend is echoed by an internal poll commissioned by the Republican Party of Florida and conducted by the polling firm The Tarrance Group, which shows Trump leading Harris 56% to 40% among the same demographic.
Polls from NBC6 and Telemundo 51 also confirm Trump's advantage, showing him ahead by five percentage points among Florida's Hispanic voters. The former president's hardline stance on immigration, including his promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and claims that migrants are taking American jobs, seems to resonate with this crucial voting bloc.
In the broader context of the presidential race, recent data from Marist College show Trump leading Harris by four points among likely voters statewide, with 51% supporting Trump compared to 47% for Harris. However, Harris maintains an advantage among independents and Black voters, though her support falls short of President Joe Biden's numbers from 2020.
While Trump has made strides among Hispanic voters, he has not reached the same level of support among white voters as he did in the previous election. A notable gender gap exists: Trump leads among men with 55% support, a 15-point gender gap compared to Harris. At the same time, three points separate Harris (51%) and Trump (48%) among women voters.
Trump receives majority support among Gen X (56%) and edges Harris among GenZ/Millennials (52% to 47%). However, Harris holds a slight advantage among Baby Boomers (52%).
The survey highlights that 97% of likely voters in Florida plan to vote in the presidential election, with 90% indicating they are set in their candidate preference. Among those who plan to vote in person, Trump holds a commanding lead. In contrast, Harris has a stronger base among mail-in voters.
With Latinos comprising almost 30% of the state's total population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2023 estimates, Florida remains a key battleground in the upcoming presidential election.
Issues such as inflation and preserving democracy are top concerns for Florida residents, with 29% citing inflation as their primary issue.
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