Trump Faces Major Hurdles in Executing Mass Deportation Plan in Second Term

Former President Donald Trump's campaign promise to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history faces significant logistical, legal, and political obstacles. If re-elected, Trump plans to remove millions of illegal immigrants, starting with 500,000 convicted criminals, according to his campaign. However, experts point out that deportations on such a massive scale would present numerous challenges.

On a large scale, Trump's campaign promise could impact up to 11 million people living in the country without legal status. During a September debate, Trump's running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), claimed that around 21 million undocumented people reside in the United States, with "a million having committed some form of crime in addition to crossing the border illegally." Vance suggested starting deportations with those individuals. However, the scale of Trump's plan would far exceed past administrations, including his own, which deported 1.5 million people over four years.

No administration has attempted a deportation operation of this size. Even the Obama administration, which averaged higher yearly deportation numbers than Trump, did not reach this scale. The Biden administration is on track to match Trump's deportation totals by relying on "returns," a voluntary deportation process.

According to a report from the Washington Examiner, implementing Trump's plan would require substantial resources beyond the current capacity of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). ICE, with around 6,000 Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) officers, currently lacks the manpower, detention space, and air transportation to carry out such a large-scale operation. David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, noted that deporting 21 million people in four years would be unfeasible without military support, which Trump has proposed using.

Even with an estimated $20 billion increase in funding needed to apprehend and deport just 1 million individuals, Trump's plan would likely face legal challenges similar to those encountered during his first term. Significant funding increases would require Congressional approval, and lawsuits from organizations like the American Civil Liberties Union could target expedited deportation policies for violating due process.

Family separations, which sparked widespread backlash in 2018, could also resurface as a political issue. Trump has pledged to make "provisions" for mixed-status families but maintains that his priority is removing criminals from the country.

But besides the constitutional and humanitarian implications of such a plan, little has been researched about the financial implications it would entail for the country. Economic experts warn that mass deportations could harm industries like agriculture and hospitality and shrink the U.S. economy by reducing the workforce, as reported by the outlet.

A new analysis by CBS News, however, digs deep into the numbers, estimating that deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants (based on the 2022 American Community Survey) would cost the U.S. between $160 billion and $216 billion over a four-year presidency. In addition, undocumented workers contribute over $96 billion in federal, state, and local taxes, according to the Center for Migration Studies.