Top Journalist Claims Marco Rubio Won't Last Long As Secretary Of State; Here's Why

Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio is among the few of President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet proposals to have bipartisan support for the post. However, a top reporter is anticipating he won't last long at Foggy Bottom due to a combination of factors, including being undermined by the MAGA base and the "essentially weak nature of the position he's inheriting."

In an extensive piece, POLITICO reporter Nahal Toosi detailed that MAGA supporters of Trump view Rubio as too hawkish and interventionist and have already started undermining him.

The incoming Trump administration has also appointed several special envoys whose roles overlap with those of the State Department, creating potential conflicts over authority and direct access to the president. One of them is Richard Grenell, a Trump loyalist and former ambassador who has been named presidential envoy for special missions. Some view him as a possible successor to Rubio should he end up leaving or being fired, the journalist added.

The environment within the State Department poses additional challenges. Career diplomats, often critical of Trump's foreign policy approach, have been sidelined in the past. Trump previously referred to the department as the "Deep State Department," reflecting a broader distrust of the institution. Should Rubio defend career diplomats too strongly, he risks alienating the White House and Trump's political base. But at the same time neglecting career officials could lower morale and lead to operational difficulties, according to Toosi.

Moreover, Trump is prone to making bold statements that directly influence foreign policy, potentially leaving Rubio in uncomfortable positions.

The precedent of previous secretaries of state under Trump suggests a difficult path ahead. Trump's first secretary, Rex Tillerson, faced public humiliation and internal marginalization before being ousted after little more than a year.

Rubio spokesperson Dan Holler dismissed concerns about internal conflict, stating, "President Trump has an ambitious foreign policy agenda that will put Americans first and correct the failures of the past four years. No one dedicated to carrying out the president's historic mandate has time for silly games or gossip."

Rubio's long-term aspirations may also shape his tenure. If he harbors presidential ambitions, he may leave the post before the end of Trump's term to prepare for a campaign. Secretaries of state have historically avoided engaging in domestic politics while in office, making such a departure plausible if he intends to seek the presidency in 2028, when the Republican field will be wide open.

Toosi concludes by recalling that some diplomats set up a betting pool on how long Tillerson would last, with most bets being around a year. She says Rubio will probably last a bit longer, but "after that, his odds get much worse."