A threat to democracy and rule of law: cynicism looms large among Americans ahead of presidential debate

Republicans are more likely to watch Thursday's presidential debate than Democrats, but about half of voters believe Trump to be a threat to democracy and the rule of law, a new report by Syracuse University/Ipsos American Identity poll reveals.

The poll was conducted by Ipsos for Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship from May 17 to May 19, and its results are based on a nationally representative probability sample of more than 1,000 adults of voting age.

The study found that 61% of Americans are likely to watch a televised debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But from potential viewers, Republicans (75%) are significantly more likely to say they will, compared to Democrats (60%) and independents (58%).

It also found that two-thirds of Americans (68%) believe American democracy "works pretty well for most people," while 28% say Democracy "isn't working and we need a change."

Similarly, 49% say Trump is a major threat to the American democratic system and rule of law compared to 34% who say the same of Biden. At the same time, independents are significantly more likely to view Trump as a major threat to the American democratic system (52%) than Biden (32%).

But while Americans tend to have a degree of cynicism when it comes to their options ahead of the elections, this isn't the only aspect of a democracy they do not trust.

According to the study, 45% of Americans believe that journalists are essential to protecting democracy, but only 22% trust most mainstream news outlets to give them the facts, whether or not they agree with them. Likewise, they often have a hard time knowing what is actually news and what sources they can trust (34%), and one in five either don't trust any news outlets (20%) or trust their preferred news outlet but not most others (19%).

The report comes in lieu of Thursday night's first presidential debate of the 2024 general election season, where President Biden, and presumptive GOP nominee and former president Donald Trump will go head to head in Atlanta.

As the event nears, all eyes are on Trump to see how he will behave and what his jabs will be centered on. In recent days, Trump and his team have hammered the idea in conservative media that he will outperform Biden.

One of the reasons why, they say, related to Biden's age and competency, a subject that has been of major focus throughout this campaign season.

Many Americans who rely on conservative media, word of mouth or social media snippets "really believe this narrative that Biden's this senile old man who's secretly or not-so-secretly controlled" by Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump's going to clean the floor with him," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson.

"The big question is going to be, are they informed by what happens in this debate?" Jackson said. "Historically, more people learn about the debate from the news coverage than the actual debate."

"There are big swaths of Americans who are just not spending a lot of time with mainstream news coverage— but social media, friends, nothing. That speaks to the challenge: How do you reach people who are sort of unreachable?"

Aside from Biden's age, Trump advisers and allies have privately encouraged him to focus intensely on the economy, crime and inflation during this debate, citing poll numbers that reflect he has the upper hand on these issues, while guiding him to stir away from grievances that have occupied his mind for the past four years, CNN reports.