Ted Cruz's Chances of Keeping His Texas Senate Seat Entering Final Month of Campaign

As the election season enters its final month of campaign, Ted Cruz is holding his lead over his challenger in the Texas Senate elections, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.

However, the margin is much lower than earlier in the year, with Allred even taking the lead in a recent poll. With just weeks to go before Texans head to the polls, the latest survey has the Republican ahead by four percentage points, with 52% of the support compared to Allred's 48%.

Conducted by ActiVote among 400 likely voters between September 5 and 30, it shows the same margin as another recent survey from Emerson College, The Hill and Nexstar, which polled 950 likely voters.

One of Allred's best chances at increasing his chances of an upset will take place in two weeks, as both candidates have agreed to have a televised debate on October 15. The event will take place at WFAA-TV's studio in Dallas. It will be moderated by WFAA's Jason Whitely and The Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers Jr.

Allred's home stretch will also be supported by a multi-million dollar investment by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which signaled its intention of flipping the Texas Senate seat in what is expected to be one of the most expensive races in state history.

The investment is part of a broader DSCC effort, which also includes Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott faces a tight re-election battle. DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters said in a statement that "Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense," targeting Cruz and Scott due to their damaged standings in their respective states.

The DSCC's multimillion-dollar investment will be primarily used in television ads designed to increase Allred's name recognition across the state. Allred's campaign has already been focusing on saturating these media markets.

The U.S. Rep., who was relatively unknown statewide when he entered the race, has already built a substantial campaign, raising over $41 million by the end of June and surpassing Cruz in fundraising totals. He has also received several high-profile endorsements from non-Democrats, including former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney.

The 2018 race marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Texas, once a solidly Democratic state, began shifting to Republican control in 1961 with the election of the first statewide Republican. Since 1988, no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.