Ted Cruz Retakes the Lead in Texas Senate Race as Contest Remains Razor Thin

Ted Cruz is back on the lead in the Texas Senate race after a recent survey showed his challenger, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, ahead for the first time. However, the incumbent's lead is still razor thin and the contest remains fluid a little over a month before Texans head to the polls.

Allred appeared on top (45% to Cruz's 44%) at a Morning Consult survey conducted between September 9 and 18 among 2,716 likely voters. Three polls have been published ever since, all of them showing the Republican ahead by different margins.

The one with the largest gap was conducted by Emerson College, The Hill and Nexstar. It showed Cruz ahead by 4 percentage points, leading by 49% to Allred's 45%. It interviewed 950 likely voters between September 22 and 24.

Another one by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation from September 13-18 among 1,200 likely voters had Cruz at 48% and Allred at 45%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown included in the race and coming in at 2%.

The most recent survey was conducted by Public Policy Polling and sponsored by the Democratic-affiliated Clean and Prosper America PAC. In it, Cruz is still ahead, but by a single percentage point, leading 47% to 46%. In another scenario that includes Ted Brown, the Republican is ahead by two points, 45% to Allred's 43%, while Brown takes 3% of the support.

As the race remains close, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has announced a multimillion-dollar investment in Allred's bid. The DSCC confirmed the funding last week, signaling a heightened focus on flipping the Texas Senate seat in what is expected to be one of the most expensive races in state history.

The investment is part of a broader DSCC effort, which also includes Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott faces a tight re-election battle. DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters said in a statement that "Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense," targeting Cruz and Scott due to their damaged standings in their respective states.

Peters emphasized that Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns, and the committee is accelerating its efforts in both states, as reported by The Hill.

The DSCC's multimillion-dollar investment will be primarily used in television ads designed to increase Allred's name recognition across the state. Allred's campaign has already been focusing on saturating these media markets.

The U.S. Rep., who was relatively unknown statewide when he entered the race, has already built a substantial campaign, raising over $41 million by the end of June and surpassing Cruz in fundraising totals. He has also received several high-profile endorsements from non-Democrats, including former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney.

The 2018 race marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Texas, once a solidly Democratic state, began shifting to Republican control in 1961 with the election of the first statewide Republican. Since 1988, no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.