A Telemundo poll released on Tuesday revealed that 55% of Latino voters in California favor Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, while 33% back her Republican rival Donald Trump. The study also showed she has over 50% support across all groups, including different ages, genders, and countries of origin, an unsurprising figure given that the state has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1988.
When it comes to the issues defining voters' stances, Harris is leading in areas where she has lagged behind Trump in the rest of the country, with 47% of respondents saying they trust her more when it comes to the economy, while 42% said they trusted Trump more and 11% were unsure.
A new poll from UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times seems to echo much of these findings, as Harris leads Trump 57% to 35% in the state overall. Researchers, however, were quick to point out what has become a concerning trend for Democrats: Harris is well behind President Biden's performance in 2020, when he won 75% of the Latino vote in the state.
"If any place is supposed to have the most happy Latinos, the most progressive Latinos, it's here," said Cristina Mora, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies to the LA Times. "But they're experiencing the pain points of inequality."
Latinos, who make up about 3 in 10 voters in California, have been among the hardest hit by the state's housing crisis and the effects of inflation, which has subsided in recent months but has left high prices in its wake. A lack of progress on immigration reform and very strict asylum restrictions from the Biden administration have also dampened enthusiasm among progressive Latinos in California.
As a result, Latino voters, particularly those affected by inflation, housing issues, and a lack of immigration reform progress, have become a more contested group. Trump's gains among second- and third-generation Latino families come despite his controversial rhetoric about immigrants.
The poll also revealed that Harris has also seen some loss of support among Asian and Black voters compared to 2020, though these groups still largely back her, with 66% of Asian/Pacific Islanders and 72% of Black voters supporting her in California. On the other hand, she has gained ground with white voters, particularly those with college degrees, a trend consistent with a national shift of educated white voters moving toward Democrats.
The poll indicates that 5% of likely voters remain undecided. These voters tend to view Trump more negatively than Harris, especially on issues like democracy and extremism, but see Trump as stronger on economic and foreign affairs.
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