'Squad' Democrat Cori Bush's chances of surviving her Missouri primary, according to the polls

Missouri Representative Cori Bush is facing on Tuesday one of the most high-profile primary elections in the country, as the member of the progressive group known as "The Squad" takes on a challenger heavily financed by a pro-Israel lobbying group due to her vocal criticism of the country's war against Hamas in Gaza. Several investigations by the Justice Department, Federal Election Commission and House Ethics Committee over alleged misuse of campaign funds for personal security are in voters' focus as well.

Bush appears to be at serious risk of losing her seat against prosecutor Wesley Bell, with most polls showing her trailing her opponent. The FiveThirtyEight survey aggregator shows that the last study, conducted by the Mellman Group in late July, had Bell in the lead with 48% of the support compared to Bush's 42%.

It is worth noting that the poll was among 400 likely voters, making the margin of error higher. The other surveys concerning the race had similar pools, with results showing high levels of variation.

A study by McLaughlin & Associates among 300 likely voters from late June and early July had Bell with a whopping 56%-33% lead, but another one from a week prior by the Mellman Group among 400 likely voters showed the prosecutor with a slim 43%-42% lead. In contrast, a poll by the Remington Research Group among 401 likely voters had bell with 50% of the support, compared to Bush's 28%.

But beyond the gap, the common denominator is Bush trailing in all surveys. She has complained about the funding received by her contender, recently telling NBC News "I'm just trying to make sense of why so much money would be spent in our congressional race when our district has so many needs."

Overall, more than $18 million have been spent in the race, making it the second most expensive one in the country. About half of it has come from AIPAC, the pro-Israel group supporting the country's interests in the U.S. Bush has rallied against funding for Israel in its war against Hamas following the October 7 attack that left some 1,200 dead and 250 taken hostage into Gaza. She has accused Israel of conducting an "ethnic cleansing campaign" in its retaliation.

Bell, on his end, has said that Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas, recognized as a terrorist group by the U.S., and that he would be supportive of the country if elected. He and Bush hold similar views on most other issues, including "lowering health care costs, making the community safer and enacting policies that aim to help the working class, as well as abortion rights" NBC News reported.

AIPAC has successfully played a role in the unseating of another "Squad" member in a primary, when Rep. Jamaal Bowman, also a vocal Israel critic, lost an election in New York in late June against George Latimer.