The Sinaloa Cartel Turf War Has Raged On For More Than 100 Days; Who Is Winning?

December 17 marked the 100th day since turf wars between "Los Chapitos" and "La Mayiza" —the two most prominent factions of the Sinaloa Cartel— erupted in the eponymous state, causing more than 500 deaths across the state as well as hundreds of disappearances. There were only two days in which no homicides were reported since September 9.

According to data from the National Public Security System (SESNSP) September saw 103 reports of intentional homicide. That figure rose to 141 in October, with November showing an increase to 169 cases. So far in December, authorities in Sinaloa say at least 88 homicides have taken place.

But even as the death toll keeps climbing and Mexican authorities continue to fight cartels with key arrests to regional leaders and plaza bosses, "Los Chapitos" and "La Mayiza" seem to continue operating in full force.

100 days into the armed conflict, who has the upper hand?

Before turf wars erupted in September, investigative journalist Anabel Hernández told Infobae Mexico that "La Mayiza," led by the son of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, known as "Mayito Flaco," was scared of declaring war to "Los Chapitos" due to the strong armed wings that supported the clique.

But over the past 100 days it seems seems like the tables have turned and now "La Mayiza" has the upper hand thanks to having a larger "army."

"La Mayiza controls a larger swath territory," David Saucedo told Infobae. "That is why there are rumors about a possible alliance between Los Chapitos and the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación to get rid of La Mayiza," Saucedo added.

"Los Chapitos" winning the war in certain parts of Sinaloa

According to comments from journalist José Luis Montenegro, the clique loyal to Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán's sons is "winning the war in certain parts of Sinaloa. Montenegro, author of the book "Los Chapitos: criminal x-ray of the heirs of the Sinaloa Cartel," said they count with the support of the Beltrán Leyva, Guasave and Guanos cartels.

But despite Montenegro's comments, audios and comments circling on social media indicate the opposite, saying that people loyal to "Mayito Flaco" have taken control of some parts of Mazatlán and are currently trying to enter Culiacán, the stronghold of "Los Chapitos."

This hypothesis is also supported by some of the key arrest made my Mexican authorities in recent weeks, delivering a significant blow to the organigram of "Los Chapitos."

Key arrests for both sides

In the last three months, authorities have captured key members of the clique that held positions as either leaders of armed wings, plaza bosses or drug traffickers. Among those arrested are:

• Mario Alexander Gámez, alias "El Piyi" - close collaborator of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
• "El Cañas," the right-hand man of "El 27," the security chief for "Los Chapitos"
• "El Fantasma," head of security for Joaquín "El Chapo Guzmán

But despite most of the high-profile arrests affecting "Los Chapitos," the clique loyal to "El Mayo" has also suffered a few casualties.

Just a few days ago, The Latin Times reported the arrest of "El Mero Mero," uncle and godfather of Ovidio Guzmán López who pledged his allegiance to "La Mayiza" when the conflict erupted. "El Mero Mero" was identified by authorities as one of the faction's fentanyl producers.

Other high-profile blows delivered y authorities to "La Mayiza" include:

• "El Max", considered one of the greatest generators of violence in the country
• "El Güero Chompas," plaza boss in Baja California
• Death of "El Delta" or "El Dimas," financial operator for "El Mayo" Zambada