Despite insistence from the Russian government of the Western sanctions’ lack of effect in their country, a study from Yale University released on Tuesday confirmed that the sanctions may have effectively and “irrevocably deteriorated” the Russian economy in the near future.
The study, which looked into Russia’s worldwide trade and shipping partners as well as consumer data from the country, found that the country’s international place as an exporter has been destroyed while its imports show a crucial struggle in securing inputs, parts, and technology, according to Deutsche Welle.
“Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent,” the report said. “The hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst.”
With supply shortages and their inability to get exports from different countries, the study believes that over 40% of the country’s GDP has been taken out of the country due to foreign companies and investment leaving at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Euronews reported.
“Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades worth of foreign investment,” they said.
The Yale study also points out that they believe that the data that the Kremlin has been pushing since the beginning of the sanctions have been “cherry-picked” to hide the sudden decrease of production in multiple sectors due to the sanctions.
“Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable,” the study said. “These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.”
As many leaders question the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia, the study claims that it believes that the country will continue its economic downfall so long as the countries participating stay firm in their commitment to them.
“There is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia,” they said. “By any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.”
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