Rudy Salas' Chances of Flipping Key California House Seat Less Than a Week From the Elections

In California's 22nd Congressional District, Democrat Rudy Salas is seeking to unseat incumbent Republican David Valadao in a competitive rematch that could influence the balance of power in the Lower House. Salas, who lost to Valadao in 2022 by less than 4,000 votes, is campaigning to become the first Latino representative from this largely agricultural district.

This district, which encompasses Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties, has garnered national attention as Salas has a real chance of coming out on top in the San Joaquin Valley, a traditional Republican stronghold. Democrats need to flip at least four seats in the House — currently controlled by the Republican Party with 221 seats — making Salas's race increasingly significant.

The most recent poll, released on Tuesday by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill has the Latino up by a slight lead over Valadao, 47% to 45%. Among Hispanic voters, who represent a majority in the district, Salas has an even larger lead: 13-points, while white voters favor Valadao by a significant margin, 57% to 34%.

The poll also indicated that key voter concerns in the district include the economy (35%), homelessness (17%) and immigration (13%), with those prioritizing homelessness heavily supporting Salas, while those focused on immigration favoring Valadao.

According to voter registration data, democrats make up 41.2% of the area, while republicans make up 27.3% and 23.1% of voters are registered no-party preference.

Salas, a former California State Assembly member, has emphasized his legislative record during the campaign trail, particularly in health care, economic development, and local issues. His work includes supporting funding for a Valley Fever Institute in Kern County and addressing rising insulin costs for people with diabetes.

He has also criticized some of Valadao's votes as a member of Congress, especially those against legislation to lower medication costs, the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, and the bipartisan-supported Infrastructure Act.

According to The Hill, there are two other races in California which Democrats also believe they're in position to win this November. One is in the state's 13th congressional district, were Democratic nominee Adam Gray looks to take down first-term Rep. John Duarte, who won the seat by only 564 votes back in 2022. The other one is in the 27th congressional district, where Democratic challenger, George Whitesides looks to unseat Second-term Rep. Mike Garcia.