Trump Ally Rick Scott's Chances of Keeping His Florida Senate Seat Entering Final Month of Campaign

Rick Scott still has a solid chance of keeping his seat representing Florida in the U.S Senate as the final months of campaigning begins, but less so than at the beginning of the race.

His lead in the polls over his Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has been shrinking throughout the past months, but he is still ahead in all of them. Moreover, the Cook Political Report still has his race as a "likely Republican."

The latest surveys do show the Democrat trailing by a razor thin Margin: one conducted by Victory Insights among 600 likely voters between September 22 and 25 showed Scott ahead by just one percentage point, getting 45% of the support compared to the Democrat's 44%.

The previous one, conducted by The Bullfinch Group and The Independent Center among 600 registered voters between September 20 and 23, also pointed to a slim margin. Scott garnered 46% of the support while Mucarsel-Powell got 44%. All but one poll from September show the incumbent ahead by five percentage points or less.

Democrats in Florida face an uphill battle undoing a strengthened GOP hold in the state in recent years, particularly in an election where former President Trump is expected to add to GOP turnout in the state. Nevertheless, they are still confident they can win certain races ahead of November.

In fact, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has decided to include Florida as one of ten battleground states which will get a $25 million investment into direct voter outreach programs along with Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.

The DSCC's strategy includes on-the-ground organizing, phone banking, and online outreach, with particular emphasis on engaging young voters and people of color. The investment also includes hiring field organizers and conducting in-person events.

Axios reported that the party has often overlooked Florida in the past, but this year, "citing an anticipated boost in progressive interest due to referenda on marijuana and abortion rights, party leaders have been urging national Democrats to flip the script."

There are some indicators about the Democrat having a possibility to convince undecided voters or Republicans, considering an Axios report that shows Scott with a lower level of support than Donald Trump in the state: 46.3% to Trump's 49%. If the closest polls are accurate and she gets a boost during the next months, an upset could be within sight.

Mucarsel-Powell has cut into Scott's advantage despite the fact that the Republican's campaign has spent nearly $12 million on advertising since the start of 2023, compared to her $4.5 million, according to AdImpact. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale media market alone, Republican spending on the race has topped Democrats by more than $2 million.