RFK Jr.'s presidential candidacy could hurt Trump more than Biden, new poll shows

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. initially intended to run as a Democrat, but his political profile might be more appealing to Donald Trump voters than Joe Biden's at the moment.

According to a new NBC News poll, the inclusion of RFK Jr. in the mix helps Biden take the lead from Trump, a contrast with the scenario in which the Democrat and the Republican are the sole competitors.

Concretely, figures show that in the former scenario Biden leads with 39% of the vote, compared to Trump's 37% and RFK Jr.'s 13%. Jill Stein and Cornel West would get 3% and 2% of the vote.

Conversely, Trump would get 46% and Biden 44% in a race between just the two of them, with the remaining 10% saying they are either not sure who they would support or if they would vote at all.

The main reason for this, the poll says, is that it found "a greater share of Trump voters in the head-to-head matchup backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot." "Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden," the study added.

Even though more Joe Biden voters would go to Jill Stein than Trump's (4% for Biden and a statistically insignificant proportion for the Republican), the incumbent would only lose 14% of his support when other candidates are added to the mix compared to Trump's 20%.

The survey granted that other studies of the kind showed RFK Jr.'s candidacy hurt Biden more than Trump, so its authors were cautious about the conclusions that could be drawn from it. "One, it's an outlier. ... Or two, we're going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what's to come," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who took part in the study.

The Biden campaign, however, has put a significant amount of attention in preventing RFK Jr. from getting support from Democrats. Just last week he held an event with members of the Kennedy family who endorsed him over their relative.

Biden also made sure to get the endorsement of family members of historic Latino leader Cesar Chavez, as RFK Jr. has sought to use his uncle John F. Kennedy's historic support from Latinos to make gains with this demographic.

"The bonds of affection and respect for a president who by his character and actions consistently reflects the genuine legacy of my father." Paul Chavez told CBS News.

The endorsement, however, was somewhat symbolic, as the Biden campaign already has close ties with the Chavez family. His granddaughter, Julie Chavez Rodrigez, is the president's campaign manager.

Kennedy, on his end, is seeking to capitalize on his uncle's historic support with an initiative that includes registering voters under RFK's We the People Party, ads in Spanish and the setting up of clubs across the country.

Kennedy will be on the ballot in at least four states and is seeking to appear in at least two others, Georgia and Arizona, both of them with large Latino populations. The goal is to emulate to some extent his uncle's support with the demographic. JFK got 90% of Latino voters in some states, the 1960 elections being the first time in which they played a significant role in tipping the scale in some states.